Systematic under- or over-estimation of general knowledge quantities is driven by specific cognitive biases.
the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
confidence 88/100
Multiple studies demonstrate that systematic misestimations of quantities are driven by specific cognitive biases such as quantity insensitivity, attribute substitution, and operational momentum.
Evidence for · 3
How social information can improve estimation accuracy in human groups
2017 · cited by 112
Paper [1] notes that human judgment features systematic cognitive biases causing underestimation of quantities, which can be counterbalanced by social influence.
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More for · 2
Environmental impact judgments of meat, vegetarian, and insect burgers: Unifying the negative footprint illusion and quantity insensitivity
2019 · cited by 53
Paper [4] demonstrates that quantity insensitivity and the negative footprint illusion are specific cognitive biases that drive systematic estimation errors in environmental impact judgments.
Operational momentum in multiplication and division?
2014 · cited by 15
Paper [8] shows that numerical estimation biases such as operational momentum lead to the systematic over- or under-estimation of mathematical quantities based on problem type.