Rejecting the problem of induction leads to the adoption of fallibilism and deductivism in science.
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The retrieved sources establish that rejecting the problem of induction led figures like Karl Popper to adopt deductivism and reject inductive methods in science, but they provide only partial support for the direct connection between rejecting the problem of induction and the combined adoption of both fallibilism and deductivism.
The extent of harm and suffering caused by the coronavirus pandemic has prompted a debate about whether the epidemic could have been contained, had the gravity of the crisis been predicted earlier. In this paper, the philosophical debate on predictive reasoning is framed by Hume's problem of induction. Hume argued that it is rationally unjustified to move from the finite observations of past incidences to the predictions of future events. Philosophy has offered two major responses to the problem of induction: the pragmatic induction of Peirce and the critical rationalism of Popper. It is argued that of these two, Popper's critical rationalism provides a more potent tool for preparing for unanticipated events such as the Covid-19 pandemic. Popper's notion of risky predictions equips strategic foresight with clear hypotheticals regarding potential crisis scenarios. Peirce's pragmatic induction, instead, leans on probabilities that are slower to be amended as unexpected events start unfolding. The difference between the two approaches is demonstrated through a case study of the patterns of reasoning within the World Health Organization in the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic.<h4>Supplementary information</h4>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40926-022-00203-6.
This chapter considers how valuable scientific knowledge is, and how certain and permanent is the knowledge gained through this method. Peirce repeatedly and firmly asserts that scientific knowledge is not a completely certain and adequate representation of its object. Science never achieves the final and absolute formulation of the universe. Pierce calls the acknowledgment of this necessary limitation of scientific knowledge “fallibilism.” It is an attitude of reserve toward science, a deliberate withholding of a complete and final commitment toward the achievements of the scientific method. At the same time, there is a spirit of confidence in science, and an assurance that science really does converge on the truth. Peircean fallibilism, then, is not a complete distrust of scientific knowledge. Rather it is tempered by the reasoned conviction that scientific knowledge is the best knowledge we have, and that the method of the sciences is the only reliable method of settling opinion, hence why his attitude is considered a “moderate fallibilism.” This chapter considers the moderate fallibilism of science as a consequent of the method of the sciences, and of the object which the sciences study, namely, the universe.
se, as in the case of
psychoanalytic theories, it is consistent with all possible
observations, is unscientific. However, Popper is not a positivist and
acknowledges that unscientific theories may be enlightening and that
even purely mythogenic explanations have performed a valuable function
in the past in expediting our understanding of the nature of
reality.
3. The Problem of Demarcation
For Popper the central problem in the philosophy of science is that of
demarcation, i.e., of distinguishing between science and what he terms
“non-science” (e.g., logic, metaphysics, psychoanalysis,
and Adler’s individual psychology). Popper is unusual amongst
contemporary philosophers in that he accepts the validity of
the Humean critique of induction, and indeed, goes beyond it in
arguing that induction is never actually used in science. However, he
does not concede that this entails scepticism and argues that the
Baconian/Newtonian insistence on the primacy of “pure”
observation, as the initial step in the formation of theories, is
completely misguided: all observation is selective and theory-laden
and there are no pure or theory-free observations. In this way he
destabilises the traditional view that science can be distinguished
from non-science on the basis of its inductive methodology. In
contradistinction to this, Popper holds that there is no unique
methodology specific to science; rather, science, like virtually every
other organic activity, consists largely of problem-solving.
Popper accordingly rejects the view that induction is the
characteristic method of scientific investigation and inference,
substituting falsifiability in its place. It is easy, he
argues, to obtain evidence in favour of virtually any theory, and he
consequently holds that such “corroboration”, as he terms
it, should count scientifically only if it is the positive result of a
genuinely “risky” prediction, which might conceivably have
been false.
Falsificationism: science without induction? | An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science | Cambridge Aspire website
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# An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science
Chapter
## Chapter 2: Falsificationism: science without induction?
pp. 15-25
Kent W. Staley
, St Louis University, Missouri
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## Summary
Growth through falsification
The philosopher of science Karl Popper considered the problem of induction so grave as to require the elimination of induction from the methods employed in science. He went so far as to assert that “in my view there is no such thing as induction” (Popper, 1992, 40).
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