Qflux represents ocean heat transport and is essential for stable climate modeling.
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Peer-reviewed literature and model documentation explicitly define Qflux (or Q-flux) as the representation of ocean heat convergence and transport used within slab ocean climate models to simulate stable climatic conditions.
AbstractOngoing controversy about Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth events motivates a theoretical study of stability and hysteresis properties of very cold climates. A coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐sea ice general circulation model (GCM) has four stable equilibria ranging from 0% to 100% ice cover, including a “Waterbelt” state with tropical sea ice. All four states are found at present‐day insolation and greenhouse gas levels and with two idealized ocean basin configurations. The Waterbelt is stabilized against albedo feedback by intense but narrow wind‐driven ocean overturning cells that deliver roughly 100 W m−2 heating to the ice edges. This requires three‐way feedback between winds, ocean circulation, and ice extent in which circulation is shifted equatorward, following the baroclinicity at the ice margins. The thermocline is much shallower and outcrops in the tropics. Sea ice is snow‐covered everywhere and has a minuscule seasonal cycle. The Waterbelt state spans a 46 W m−2 range in solar constant, has a significant hysteresis, and permits near‐freezing equatorial surface temperatures. Additional context is provided by a slab ocean GCM and a diffusive energy balance model, both with prescribed ocean heat transport (OHT). Unlike the fully coupled model, these support no more than one stable ice margin, the position of which is slaved to regions of rapid poleward decrease in OHT convergence. Wide ranges of different climates (including the stable Waterbelt) are found by varying the magnitude and spatial structure of OHT in both models. Some thermodynamic arguments for the sensitivity of climate, and ice extent to OHT are presented.
Abstract
Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) – the global temperature response to doubling CO
2
– can be better understood by examining past climate states and the feedback mechanisms regulating CO
2
-induced warming. While studies agree that ECS increases with higher CO
2
, the range of Earth’s historical ECS and its underlying drivers remain incompletely understood. Here, we use slab ocean Community Earth System Model simulations to analyze four distinct periods in Earth's climate history with substantially different continental configurations: the late Cretaceous, early Eocene, late Oligocene, and preindustrial. Our results show that ECS varies by over 2.5°C, ranging from 4.04°C to 6.66°C. We analyze the contributions of CO
2
background, geography, and ocean heat transport to ECS variability and decompose the total climate feedback parameter into the water vapor, cloud, surface albedo, and temperature feedbacks. Using a consistent model framework across geological epochs, we provide new constraints on ECS sensitivity to boundary conditions and offer insights into its variability throughout Earth's history.
Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations published in Ladant et al. (2020). CRET6x was
then run for an additional ~ 1200 model years.
The fully-coupled 3x PI CO2 Eocene simulation (EECO3x) has paleogeography, land-sea mask, and
vegetation distribution following the Deep-Time Modeling Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) protocol at
~ 55 million years ago (Herold et al. 2014). The simulation was run for ~ 2000 model years, and the
ocean temperature and salinity were initialized from a Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)
quasi-equilibrated state (Zhu et al. 2020).
The fully-coupled 2x PI CO2 Oligocene simulation (OLIG2x) was run using iCESM1.2 for ~ 1600 model
years. The paleogeography and land-sea mask used has been published by Straume et al. (2020). The
vegetation distribution used is based on a global BIOME4 model for the Chattian (26 million years ago)
by the Bristol Research Initiative for the Dynamic Global Environment (BRIDGE 2022).
2.3 Slab Ocean Model simulations
We created SOM simulations using the climatological data from each equilibrated paleoclimate
simulated ocean. A slab ocean is a simplified representation of the ocean, approximating a well-mixed
ocean mixed layer at each grid point; SOM configurations have been traditionally used particularly for
understanding the climate sensitivity of an environment through quicker, cost-effective means
(Danabasoglu and Gent 2009; Singh et al. 2022; Zhu et al. 2019). SOM simulations use climatological
data from fully-coupled, equilibrated oceans to prescribe spatially and seasonally varying ocean heat flux
convergence (Qflux). The model includes a thermodynamic slab ocean with a prescribed mixed layer
depth that varies spatially but does not simulate ocean currents. Surface salinity and temperature evolve
prognostically, but there is no explicit advection or ocean dynamics (Kiehl et al. 2006). The Qflux is
calculated using the density of seawater, ocean heat capacity, mixed layer depth, net heat flux into the
ocean, and sea surface temperature (SST) (Bitz et al. 2012). A SOM simulation is still coupled with the
other CESM components, but it only takes a few decades to equilibrate, even with an exceptionally high
atmospheric CO2 level, and represents the foremost climatic processes that affect ECS (Danabasoglu
and Gent 2009).
We ran five SOM simulations, each using one of the distinct slab oceans and geographic configurations
(CRET3x, CRET6x, EECO3x, OLIG2x, and PI1x) for ~ 100 years each and produced climatological files at
that original CO2 level. We then doubled the CO2 level of each simulation and ran them for another ~ 100
years to produce new climatological files at the doubled atmospheric CO2 level. For the CRET3x and PI1x
simulations, we doubled CO2 a subsequent time to achieve a second ECS at a higher CO2 background
state. The OHT experiment was conducted by cloning the CRET6x SOM simulation, swapping its ocean
climatological data with the cooler CRET3x ocean, running the simulation for ~ 100 years, doubling CO2,
and running it again (see “ECS sensitivity to ocean heat transport”). The atmospheric and land conditions
of each simulation in the OHT experiment are identical to those of the fully-coupled paleoclimate
simulation from which the ocean climatology was derived.
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= 3x PI CO2), and the last number represents the atmospheric CO2. The final simulation listed is for the
OHT experiment (see “ECS sensitivity to ocean heat transport”). The rightmost columns describe whattotal percentage of the planet was covered by ocean in the initial SOM simulation, as well as specificallyhigh latitude ocean.
Simulation Name ECS InitialGMST Initial %Ocean Initial % High Latitude (> 60°) Ocean
CRET3xSOM3x◊CRET3xSOM6x 5.57 25.57 ℃ 73.0% 40.5%
CRET3xSOM6x◊CRET3xSOM12x6.14 31.14 ℃ 73.1% 41.3%
CRET6xSOM6x◊CRET6xSOM12x6.66 30.71 ℃ 73.1% 41.4%
EECO3xSOM3x◊EECO3xSOM6x6.57 25.24 ℃ 73.6% 48.1%
OLIG2xSOM2x◊OLIG2xSOM4x5.06 21.95 ℃ 72.1% 46.9%
PI1xSOM1x◊PI1xSOM2x 4.04 14.73 ℃ 66.6% 22.0%
PI1xSOM2x◊PI1xSOM4x 4.62 18.77 ℃ 68.6% 35.7%
CRET3xOHT6x◊CRET3xOHT12x 5.77 31.08 ℃ 73.1% 41.3%
While doubling CO2 increases GMST across all simulations, ECS varies by more than 2.5°C (Table 1). The
highest ECS of 6.66°C occurs in the Cretaceous 6x PI CO2 case while the lowest, 4.04°C, is in the PI 1x PI
CO2 case. The Cretaceous and Eocene ‘greenhouse’ climate simulations with higher initial GMST exhibit
higher ECS than the Oligocene and PI ‘icehouse’ simulations. However, initial GMST alone does not
determine ECS: for example, the CRET3xSOM6x simulation has the highest initial GMST at 31.14°C, yet
only the third highest ECS at 6.14°C (Table 1, Fig. S7).
In our simulations, a
Q-flux mixed layer model### Q-flux (mixed layer) model
We can calculate the total freshwater mass and heat fluxes into the
ice/ocean component from a spin up run with fixed SST. Given a
climatology of ocean mixed layer depths, we can calculate the implied
ocean heat convergence at the base of the mixed layer. This will
incorporate the actual ocean heat transports, but also a residual
component related to any errors in the surface heat or mass fluxes.
This ocean heat convergence can be input into a thermodynamic mixed
layer to give a Q-flux model. Depending on whether ice advection is
turned on (see[above](#part4_2)), the horizontal transport
of the sea ice is or is not incorporated into the ocean heat
convergence. A full sea ice thermodynamic calculation is performed
for this model. Generally this model takes 20 to 30 years to come into
thermal equilibrium with any change in forcing, but this can be
changed by specifying the maximum mixed layer depth (smaller implies a
faster equilibration).
There is an option to allow diffusion into the deep ocean by
replacing OCNML with ODEEP in the run deck. This requires a 10 year
spin up of the Q-flux model in order to properly set the deeper
Everything we examined (3)
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