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the claim
Printing money during deflation carries economic risks
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SUPPORTED
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Economic literature discusses the use of money creation (seignorage) to combat deflationary pressure and evaluates the associated risks and trade-offs regarding inflation and economic stability.

Evidence for · 2
2021 · cited by 2
The huge fiscal expansions triggered by the corona crisis raised debt/GDP ratios to very high levels. This led some economists to reconsider the taboo on seignorage. Following a brief documentation of the crisis impact and aggregate demand policies responses the paper discusses views of academics and policymakers on seignorage. Optimal taxation considerations imply that the decision on allocating deficit financing between debt and seignorage falls within the realm of fiscal authorities-a fact that infringes on central bank (CB) autonomy. The paper explores ideas aimed at improving the tradeoff between those two principles. Implication of cross-country variations in the need to use seignorage is discussed. Comparison of the indirect contribution of quantitative easing (QE) to deficit financing with the direct contribution of seignorage implies that QE is a substitute to seignorage that preserves central bank dominance without much change in existing monetary institutions. Comparison of empirical evidence from the USA during the global financial crisis with the post-WWI German inflation supports the view that for countries experiencing deflationary pressure seignorage is more potent in moving inflation toward its target than QE. Given the current outlook temporary use of seignorage does not appear to involve a substantial risk of inflation. Comparison of empirical evidence from the USA during the global financial crisis with the post-WWI German inflation supports the view that for countries experiencing deflationary pressure seignorage is more potent in moving inflation toward its target than QE. Given the current outlook temporary use of seignorage does not appear to involve a substantial risk of inflation. Although under current institutions the CB has the sole authority to increase the monetary base, this is a task that is naturally within the realm of elected fiscal policymakers. This raises the following non-trivial dilemma: How to implement an efficient use of seignorage during serious emergencies without opening the spigot for monetary financing of fiscal deficits during normal times. The paper considers possible solutions to this dilemma and the associated risks including the, currently remote, risk of inflation and of upward unanchoring of inflationary expectations. Empirical evidence on the higher effectiveness of seignorage in raising inflation is provided by means of a comparison of substantial QE operations through base expansion practiced in the USA during the GFC with base expansion of the same size used for seignorage operations during part of the post-WWI German hyperinflation. This is followed by concluding remarks. Economic Impact of the Corona Crisis and the Response of Aggregate Demand Policies Unlike the GFC and the great depression the corona crisis originated in the real economy and was totally unanticipated. Reproduced from Yardeni Research Inc. ( 2021 ), February 15 Since the introduction of large scale asset purchases during the GFC CBs assets have generally been trending upward. But even against this background the acceleration in the trend during 2020 is a notable outlier. Seignorage and the Role of CBs: Past and Present Seignorage is the real value of goods and services that the seignorage recipient acquires with new money created by the CB. Deployment of Fiscal Policies during the Corona Crisis and Cross-Country Variations in the Need to Use Seignorage The supply and demand disruptions caused by the corona crisis have already prompted many governments to enact large fiscal packages designed to maintain the economy and the health system afloat in the face of workers’ confinements, persistent closures of businesses, and mass unemployment. The US 2.2 and 1.9 trillion fiscal package (about 20% of GDP) discussed in section " Economic Impact of the Corona Crisis and the Response of Aggregate Demand Policies " is one example. Interestingly, to this day the Fed still holds a substantial amount of assets created during the GFC and its aftermath. Just prior to the onset of the corona crisis the balance sheet of the Fed was in the vicinity of 4 trillion $. 15 Following the massive QE operations recently deployed in reaction to the shrinkage of economic activity due to the corona virus the balance sheet reached 7.4 trillion $ in January 2021 (Fig. 2 ). By extending QE operations to long-term maturities during the GFC the Fed managed to influence the level and slope of the yield curve. However, it is important to note that QE under the accord was dictated to the CB by the political authorities, whereas the modern QE operations are under the discretion of the CB. Should Seignorage be Used in View of the Current Inflation Outlook? Given current information (March 2021) it is not evident that the During 2020 it financed most of its 7% primary deficit by means of money creation for lack of other options such as debt relief (inflation was almost 54% in 2019 and 36% in 2020). But, for regions like the Eurozone (EZ) and Japan, in which deflation rather than inflation is a problem some temporary reliance on seignorage financing is desirable not only because of optimal taxation considerations but also because it can lift inflation toward the target more effectively than QE operations. The relative advantage of a $ of seignorage over a $ of QE is illustrated in Fig. During the early stages of the GFC Caballero ( 2010 ) proposed to use seignorage provided it is earmarked for public infrastructural investments. 12 However, in countries such as Japan and the Euro area with persistent deflations and underutilizations of capacity temporary use of seignorage may be indicated to revive economic activity and to lift inflation toward the target. 13 Currently the actual distribution of the ECB profits is based on the capital key that gives equal weights to GDP and population. 14 Admittedly, some of the interest payment may be refunded to government through profit transfer schemes.
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perspective, the dominance of securitization has made the risks of the mortgage market similar to the risks of other securities markets, particularly non-regulated This article provides background information regarding the subprime mortgage crisis. It discusses subprime lending, foreclosures, risk types, and mechanisms through which various entities involved were affected by the crisis. One measure of the availability of funds (liquidity) can be measured by the money supply. During late 2008, the most liquid measurement of the U.S. money supply (M1) increased significantly as the government intervened to inject funds into the system. The focus on managing the money supply has been de-emphasized in recent history as inflation has moderated in developed countries. Historically, a sudden increase in the money supply might result in an increase in interest rates to ward off inflation or inflationary expectations. Should the U.S. government create large quantities of money to help it purchase toxic mortgage-backed securities and other poorly-performing assets from banks, there is risk of inflation and dollar devaluation relative to other countries. However, this risk is of less concern to the Fed than deflation and stagnating growth as of December 2008. Further, the dollar has strengthened as other countries have lowered their own interest rates during the crisis. This is because demand for a currency is typically proportional to interest rates; lowering interest rates lowers demand for a currency and thus it declines relative to other currencies. During a January 2009 speech, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke described the strategy of lending against various types of collateral as "Credit Easing" and explained the risks of inflation as follows: "Some observers have expressed the concern that, by expanding its balance sheet, the Federal Reserve is effectively printing money, an action that will ultimately be inflationary. The Fed's lending activities have indeed resulted i mortgage market were only one aspect of a much larger and more encompassing credit boom whose impact transcended the mortgage market to affect many other forms of credit. Aspects of this broader credit boom included widespread declines in underwriting standards, breakdowns in lending oversight by investors and rating agencies, increased reliance on complex and Generally, the ratio of tangible common equity to assets is lower (i.e., more conservative) than the tier 1 ratio. Banks and governments have taken significant steps to improve capital ratios, by issuing new preferred stock to private investors or to the government via bailouts, and cutting dividends. == Understanding the events of September 2008 == === Liquidity risk and the money market funding engine === During September 2008, money market mutual funds began to experience significant withdrawals of funds by investors in the wake of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and AIG bailout. This created a significant risk because money market funds are integral to the ongoing financing of corporations of all types. Individual investors lend money to money market funds, which then provide the funds to corporations in exchange for corporate short-term securities called asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP). However, a potential bank run had begun on certain money market funds. If this situation had worsened, the ability of major corporations to secure needed short-term financing through ABCP issuance would have been significantly affected. To assist with liquidity throughout the system, the Treasury and Federal Reserve Bank announced that banks could obtain funds via the Federal Reserve's Discount Window using ABCP as collateral. To stop the potential run on money market mutual funds, the Treasury also announced on September 19 a new $50 billion program to insure the investments, similar to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) program for regular bank accounts. === Key risk indicators === Key risk indicators became highly volatile during September 2008, a factor leading the U.S. government to pass the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008. The "TED spread" is a measure of credit risk for inter-bank lending. During late 2008, the most liquid measurement of the U.S. money supply (M1) increased significantly as the government intervened to inject funds into the system. The focus on managing the money supply has been de-emphasized in recent history as inflation has moderated in developed countries. Historically, a sudden increase in the money supply might result in an increase in interest rates to ward off inflation or inflationary expectations. Should the U.S. government create large quantities of money to help it purchase toxic mortgage-backed securities and other poorly-performing assets from banks, there is risk of inflation and dollar devaluation relative to other countries. However, this risk is of less concern to the Fed than deflation and stagnating growth as of December 2008. Further, the dollar has strengthened as other countries have lowered their own interest rates during the crisis. This is because demand for a currency is typically proportional to interest rates; lowering interest rates lowers demand for a currency and thus it declines relative to other currencies. During a January 2009 speech, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke described the strategy of lending against various types of collateral as "Credit Easing" and explained the risks of inflation as follows: "Some observers have expressed the concern that, by expanding its balance sheet, the Federal Reserve is effectively printing money, an action that will ultimately be inflationary. The Fed's lending activities have indeed resulted in a large increase in the excess reserves held by banks. Bank reserves, together with currency, make up the narrowest definition of money, the monetary base; as you would expect, this measure of money has risen significantly as the Fed's balance sheet has expanded.
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  1. COVID-19, Seignorage, Quantitative Easing and the Fiscal-Monetary Nexus.peer-reviewedno side taken
  2. Subprime crisis background informationreferenceno side taken
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first checked01 Aug 2026
judged → INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE · 001 Aug 2026
held for human review09 Aug 2026
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