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the claim
Population growth has a causal effect on increases in GDP per capita
the verdict
REFUTED
the evidence says no
refutedsupported
the weight of evidence
0 sources for · 4 against

Peer-reviewed studies and empirical economic literature dispute a universal causal effect of population growth increasing GDP per capita, finding instead either negative impacts of population growth on economic growth or mixed/unidirectional causality running from per capita income to population growth.

Evidence against · 4
2025 · cited by 3
The Golden Indonesia Vision 2045 targets sustainable, equitable and inclusive economic development, with an emphasis on the “Sustainable Economic Development” pillar. Java, as Indonesia's strategic region, is the highest contributor to the National Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In the 2019-2023 period, the global economic contraction due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of simultaneous regional elections in Indonesia are challenges. This study examines the effect of per capita expenditure, population, and the Indonesian Democracy Index (IDI) on economic growth in Java. Using secondary data from six provinces and panel data regression analysis, the results show that per capita expenditure has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, while population has a negative and significant effect. IDI shows a positive but statistically insignificant relationship. The findings emphasize the importance of increasing purchasing power, population productivity through education and technology, and strengthening substantive democracy to achieve sustainable economic growth. This research provides insights for policy makers in optimizing regional potential to support Indonesia's national economic growth goals.
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The analysis

rails:sufficiency:refuted:for=0+0p:against=3+1p | v55:sufficiency

More against · 3
2024 · cited by 2
1 Within a wider framework of institutional factors of economic growth and the relationship between population growth and GDP growth, this article focuses on the population growth and GDP growth per capita for 30 countries in Africa between 1960 and 2020. We provide a comparative analysis of approaches to methodology and results obtained in the impact of population growth on GDP/pc growth discourse. By performing the Bootstrapped Panel-Granger Causality test, the estimation results show that half of the countries showed no causality and other half of countries showed different levels of significant causality. The most seen causality is the unidirectional causality from GDP growth per capita to population growth. In addition, unidirectional causality is observed from population growth to GDP growth per capita and bidirectional causality. Overall, the results add more evidence into the research of endogenous population growth theory, which implies that there is country-specific environment which determines the causality between these two variables.
2025 · cited by 0
China's ageing population is expected to slow the country's economic growth in coming years. Population ageing can have a negative effect on a country's growth due to the decline in the working-age population relative to the dependent population, and could cause decreased labour productivity growth, as has been the case in other countries which have experienced similar demographic shifts. This paper seeks to estimate the causal effect of ageing on GDP per capita growth in China using data among China's provinces. I find that over 10 years a 10 per cent increase in the proportion of the population aged over 60 decreases nominal GDP per capita by around 7 per cent, all other things equal. These estimates imply that an ageing population has placed downward pressure on China's economic growth in the 2010s and 2020s so far, with this pressure likely to continue in the coming years. Authorities have so far responded to this challenge by increasing retirement ages and introducing policies such as a nationwide childcare subsidy. Different sectors in the economy are not likely to be affected uniformly by population ageing. I find that an increase in the old-age ratio increases the contribution of services (excluding real estate) to output, and decreases the contribution of construction.
2014 · cited by 0
offset by rapid population growth and, as a result, do not show up as increases in per capita income. An opposing … GDP per Man-Hour (1970 US$), 1870 Figure 4.1. Ratio of 1979 GDP per man-hour to 1870 GDP per man-hour … sharp decline in Rome’ per capita income and a dramatic convergence in GDP per capita among countries. The
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  1. Ageing and Economic Growth in Chinapeer-reviewedno side taken
  2. Determinants of Economic Growth in Java: Per Capita Expenditures, Population, and Contribution of Indonesian Democracypeer-reviewedno side taken
  3. Population Growth and GDP Per Capita Growth: Identifying the Causal Variable in 30 African Countriespeer-reviewedno side taken
  4. Productivity convergence : theory and evidencereferenceno side taken
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