People routinely infer causation from mere correlation
the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
confidence 86/100
Cognitive science and psychological research consistently demonstrate that humans frequently commit errors by inferring direct causal connections from mere statistical correlations or coincidences.
Evidence for · 3
Illusory Causation and Illusory Correlation
1980 · cited by 46
Paper [1] discusses illusory causation and illusory correlation as established cognitive phenomena where perceivers misattribute causal links to salient stimuli.
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More for · 2
Suspicious binds: Conspiracy thinking and tenuous perceptions of causal connections between co-occurring and spuriously correlated events.
2018 · cited by 22
Paper [3] demonstrates that individuals routinely impose causal meanings on spuriously correlated or random events, particularly in the context of conspiracy thinking.
The Clinical Assessment in the Legal Field: An Empirical Study of Bias and Limitations in Forensic Expertise.
2015 · cited by 12
Paper [7] finds that systematic errors in attributing causality and making inferential leaps are widely prevalent in professional evaluations.