Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1(°)C for a 4 W m(-2) CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4(°)C for a 4 W m(-2) CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

Abstract. The origin of the 100 kyr cyclicity which dominates ice volume variations and other climate records over the past million years remains debatable. Here, using a comprehensive Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we demonstrate that both strong 100 kyr periodicity in the ice volume variations and the timing of glacial terminations during past 800 kyr can be successfully simulated as the direct, strongly nonlinear response of the climate-cryosphere system to the orbital forcing alone, if the atmospheric CO2 concentration stays below its typical interglacial value. The existence of long glacial cycles is primarily attributed to the North American ice sheet and requires presence of a large continental area with exposed rocks. We show that the sharp peak in the power spectrum of ice volume at 100 kyr period results from the long glacial cycles being synchronized with the Earth's orbital eccentricity. Although 100 kyr cyclicity can be simulated with a constant CO2 concentration, temporal variability in the CO2 concentration plays an important role in the amplification of the 100 kyr cycles.

Abstract. To understand causal relationships in past climate variations, it is essential to have accurate chronologies of paleoclimate records. The last deglaciation, which occurred from 18 000 to 11 000 years ago, is especially interesting, since it is the most recent large climatic variation of global extent. Ice cores in Antarctica provide important paleoclimate proxies, such as regional temperature and global atmospheric CO2. However, temperature is recorded in the ice while CO2 is recorded in the enclosed air bubbles. The ages of the former and of the latter are different since air is trapped at 50–120 m below the surface. It is therefore necessary to correct for this air-ice shift to accurately infer the sequence of events. Here we accurately determine the phasing between East Antarctic temperature and atmospheric CO2 variations during the last deglacial warming based on Antarctic ice core records. We build a stack of East Antarctic temperature variations by averaging the records from 4 ice cores (EPICA Dome C, Dome Fuji, EPICA Dronning Maud Land and Talos Dome), all accurately synchronized by volcanic event matching. We place this stack onto the WAIS Divide WD2014 age scale by synchronizing EPICA Dome C and WAIS Divide using volcanic event matching, which allows comparison with the high resolution CO2 record from WAIS Divide. Since WAIS Divide is a high accumulation site, its air age scale, which has previously been determined by firn modeling, is more robust. Finally, we assess the CO2/Antarctic temperature phasing by determining four periods when their trends change abruptly. We find that at the onset of the last deglaciation and at the onset of the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) period CO2 and Antarctic temperature are synchronous within a range of 210 years. Then CO2 slightly leads by 165 ± 116 years at the end of the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) period. Finally, Antarctic temperature significantly leads by 406 ± 200 years at the onset of the Holocene period. Our results further support the hypothesis of no convective zone at EPICA Dome C during the last deglaciation and the use of nitrogen-15 to infer the height of the diffusive zone. Future climate and carbon cycle modeling works should take into account this robust phasing constraint.

Abstract The Sahara region has experienced periodic wet periods over the Quaternary and beyond. These North African Humid Periods (NAHPs) are astronomically paced by precession which controls the position of the African monsoon system. However, most IPCC-class climate models cannot generate enough precipitation to reconcile the magnitude of these events and so the driving mechanisms remain poorly constrained. Here, we present an 800kyr climate dataset produced using a recently developed version of the HadCM3B coupled climate model that simulates 20 NAHPs over the past 800kyr which have good agreement with the timing and amplitude of NAHPs identified in proxy data. Our results confirm that precession determines their pacing, but we identify that their amplitude is strongly linked to eccentricity via its control over ice sheet extent. During glacials, cooling due to enhanced ice-sheet albedo suppresses the amplitude of the NAHPs during periods of precession minima. Our results highlight the importance of both precession and eccentricity, and the role of high latitude processes in determining the timing and amplitude of the NAHPs. This may have implications for the out of Africa dispersal of plants and animals throughout the Quaternary.

Abstract. Measurements of δ18O in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) ice-core from Summit, Greenland, show repeated temporal variations associated with rapid warming events throughout the last glacial period of the Pleistocene-10–110 kya. The majority of these warming events are preceded in the ice-core record by an increased concentration of insoluble micro-particulate sulfate, indicative of increases in global volcanism. Wavelet analysis of ice-core and marine-sediment records show a repeated 5000–6000 yr periodicity in both volcanic SO4 and δ18O ice records, as well as a 5000–8000 yr cycle in the lithic concentration of ice-rafted debris, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and a database of late Quaternary volcanic eruptions. Increasing concentrations in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 initiated during periods of increased volcanism, peaking during a warm transition, reflect a volcanic-atmospheric-deglaciation feedback, regulated by meridional overturning current-shutdown related cooling.