Modern global warming trends will result in climates comparable to the Cretaceous period
the verdict
INSUFFICIENT LEANING
refutedsupported
the weight of evidence
2 sources for · 0 against
The retrieved literature uses Cretaceous greenhouse intervals as useful analog case studies for understanding modern warming trends, but does not definitively establish that modern global warming will result in climates directly comparable to the Cretaceous period.
The modern Arctic Ocean is regarded as barometer of global change and amplifier of global warming1 and therefore records of past Arctic change are of a premium for palaeoclimate reconstruction. Little is known of the state of the Arctic Ocean in the greenhouse period of the late Cretaceous, yet records from such times may yield important clues to its future behaviour given current global warming trends. Here we present the first seasonally resolved sedimentary record from the Cretaceous from the Alpha Ridge of the Arctic Ocean. This “paleo-sediment trap” provides new insights into the workings of the Cretaceous marine biological carbon pump. Seasonal primary production was dominated by diatom algae but was not related to upwelling as previously hypothesised. Rather, production occurred within a stratified water column, involving specially adapted species in blooms resembling those of the modern North Pacific Subtropical Gyre, or those indicated for the Mediterranean sapropels. With increased CO2 levels and warming currently driving increased stratification in the global ocean, this style of production that is adapted to stratification may become more widespread. Our evidence for seasonal diatom production and flux testify to an ice-free summer, but thin accumulations of terrigenous sediment within the diatom ooze are consistent with the presence of intermittent sea ice in the winter, supporting a wide body of evidence for low temperatures in the Late Cretaceous Arctic Ocean,
The Late Cretaceous Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (OAE2; ca. 94 Ma) was one of the largest global carbon cycle perturbations during the Phanerozoic. OAE2 represents an important, although extreme, case study for modern trends because widespread anoxia and enhanced organic carbon burial during OAE2 were linked to exceptionally warm climates and high atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, the consequences of this warmth for the hydrological cycle remain poorly understood, hampering our understanding of its impact on biogeochemical cycles during this greenhouse episode. Here we show evidence for changes in the hydrological cycle during OAE2 based on combined geochemical and palynological data for the stratigraphically expanded coastal OAE2 succession at Bass River, located on the New Jersey shelf (Ocean Drilling Program Leg 174AX), eastern United States. Paleothermometry, based on TEX86, indicates sea-surface warming at the onset of OAE2 and a subsequent pronounced cooling event. Palynological data show that these changes in temperature were associated with strong variations in precipitation and runoff. We suggest that an acceleration of the hydrological cycle during OAE2 played a key role in supplying nutrients to coastal waters and enhancing stratification, thus contributing to the development of ocean anoxia.
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