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the claim
Modern ephemerides achieve high initial accuracy which degrades over time due to propagated observational errors.
the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
refutedsupported
the weight of evidence
2 sources for · 0 against

Modern ephemerides start with high initial precision, but accumulated observational and modeling errors cause accuracy to degrade over extended propagation periods.

Evidence for · 2
2023 · cited by 14
Paper [2] notes that simplified general perturbation 4 (SGP4)-propagated ephemeris errors increase significantly over time, demonstrating error accumulation.
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The analysis

The claim is specific and testable regarding orbital mechanics and ephemeris propagation errors. Papers [2] and [4] explicitly discuss how propagated ephemeris data (such as SGP4 or TLEs) accumulate increasing errors over time, necessitating error correction or tracking frameworks.

More for · 1
2024 · cited by 11
Paper [4] confirms that ephemeris data derived from files like two-line elements introduce increasing errors over time due to propagation.
The paper trail · every fact has a biography
first checked04 Aug 2026
judged → SUPPORTED · 8204 Aug 2026
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