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the claim
Massive derivatives exposures at major banks can trigger systemic financial crises.
the verdict
SUPPORTED
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the weight of evidence
3 sources for · 0 against

Peer-reviewed literature on global financial derivatives networks indicates that interconnections and large exposures among systemically important financial institutions can propagate contagion and trigger systemic crises.

Evidence for · 3
2012 · cited by 50
Financial network analysis is used to provide firm level bottom-up holistic visualizations of interconnections of financial obligations in global OTC derivatives markets. This helps to identify Systemically Important Financial Intermediaries (SIFIs), analyse the nature of contagion propagation, and also monitor and design ways of increasing robustness in the network. Based on 2009 FDIC and individually collected firm level data covering gross notional, gross positive (negative) fair value and the netted derivatives assets and liabilities for 202 financial firms which includes 20 SIFIs, the bilateral flows are empirically calibrated to reflect data-based constraints. This produces a tiered network with a distinct highly clustered central core of 12 SIFIs that account for 78 percent of all bilateral exposures and a large number of  financial intermediaries (FIs) on the periphery. The topology of the network results in the “Too- Interconnected-To-Fail” (TITF) phenomenon in that the failure of any member of the central tier will bring down other members with the contagion coming to an abrupt end when the ‘super-spreaders’ have demised. As these SIFIs account for the bulk of capital in the system, ipso facto no bank among the top tier can be allowed to fail, highlighting the untenable implicit socialized guarantees needed for these markets to operate at their current levels. Systemic risk costs of highly connected SIFIs nodes are not priced into their holding of capital or collateral. An eigenvector centrality based ‘super-spreader’ tax has been designed and tested for its capacity to reduce the potential socialized losses from failure of SIFIs.
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The analysis

rails:sufficiency:supported:single_source:for=1+2p:against=0+0p | v55:sufficiency

More for · 2
2010 · cited by 0
rate derivatives and the reduced form credit risk models employed for pricing credit derivatives. In commodities … structured credit derivatives at BBVA and a senior quantitative analyst in credit derivatives at Banca IMI … in the context of very large derivatives portfolios typical for major banks. Draw- ing on his consulting
cited by 0
and financial deregulation. A series of financial crises in Europe, Asia, and Latin America followed with contagious effects due to greater exposure to The global financial system is the worldwide framework of legal agreements, institutions, and both formal and informal economic action that together facilitate international flows of financial capital for purposes of investment and trade financing. Since emerging in the late 19th century during the first modern wave of economic globalization, its evolution is marked by the establishment of central Fin… Following the market turbulence of the 1990s financial crises and September 11 attacks on the U.S. in 2001, financial integration intensified among developed nations and emerging markets, with substantial growth in capital flows among banks and in the trading of financial derivatives and structured finance products. Worldwide international capital flows grew from $3 trillion to $11 trillion U.S. dollars from 2002 to 2007, primarily in the form of short-term money market instruments. The United States experienced growth in the size and complexity of firms engaged in a broad range of financial services across borders in the wake of the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act of 1999 which repealed the Glass–Steagall Act of 1933, ending limitations on commercial banks' investment banking activity. Industrialized nations began relying more on foreign capital to finance domestic investment opportunities, resulting in unprecedented capital flows to advanced economies from developing countries, as reflected by global imbalances which grew to 6% of gross world product in 2007 from 3% in 2001. The 2008 financial crisis shared some of the key features exhibited by the wave of international financial crises in the 1990s, including accelerated capital influxes, weak regulatory frameworks, relaxed monetary policies, herd behavior during investment bubbles, collapsing asset prices, and massive deleveraging. The systemic problems originated in the United States and other advanced nations. Similarly to the 1997 Asian crisis, the global crisis entailed broad lending by banks undertaking unproductive real estate investments as well as poor standards of corporate governance within financial intermediaries. Particularly in the United States, the crisis was characterized by growing securitization of non-performing assets, large fiscal deficits, and excessive financing in the housing sector. While the real estate bubble in the U.S. triggered the 2008 financial crisis, the bubble was financed by foreign capital flowing from many countries. As its contagious effects began infecting other nations, the crisis became a precursor for the Great Recession. In the wake of the crisis, total volume of world…
Everything we examined (3)
This check searched the claim as stated. It did not run a separate search for evidence against it.
  1. Systemic Risk from Global Financial Derivativespeer-reviewedno side taken
  2. Lessons from the financial crisis : insights from the defining economic event of our lifetimereferenceno side taken
  3. Global financial systemreferenceno side taken
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