Knowing the sex of previous children has no marginal value in predicting the sex of the next child
the verdict
REFUTED
the evidence says no
refutedsupported
the weight of evidence
0 sources for · 1 against
AS REPORTEDno primary record reached; this is what the reporting says
Recent empirical research analyzing large-scale family datasets indicates that offspring sex does not follow a simple independent binomial distribution, showing instead that family-specific probabilities exist and that knowing previous offspring sex provides marginal predictive value.
Is sex at birth a biological coin toss? Insights from a longitudinal and GWAS analysis | Science Advances
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Contents
## Abstract
Some families consistently have offspring of only one sex, raising questions about whether sex at birth is truly random. This study investigated whether offspring sex follows a simple binomial distribution within families and identified maternal factors associated with unisexual sibships. We analyzed 58,007 US women with two or more singleton live births (146,064 pregnancies, 1956–2015). Offspring sex followed a beta-binomial rather than a simple binomial distribution, indicating that each family may have a unique probability of male or female births, akin to a weighted coin toss. Deviations from simple binomial distribution were more pronounced when we excluded each woman’s last birth to reduce the influence of sex-based stopping behavior. After excluding the last birth, older maternal age at first birth was associated with higher odds of having offspring of only one sex. A genome-wide association study identified maternal SNPs linked to having female-only (NSUN6) and male-only (TSHZ1) offspring. Our findings suggest maternal factors infl