Space is essential to our modern way of life; but as the number of satellites in orbit increases, so does the chance of collisions and subsequent debris. This creation of debris increases the probability of new collisions in a positive feedback loop, potentially leading to runaway growth called Kessler Syndrome. To investigate this problem, a simulation of Low Earth Orbit has been created. Results show exponential growth initially but a decrease in carrying capacity as time increases. More research is needed to apply this result to the real world.

The paper discusses the problem of the growing threat of orbital collisions – the Kessler syndrome in the Earth’s lower orbit caused by orbital satellite constellations developed to provide broadband internet. It provides a theoretical context for the main argument by presenting the current data related to space debris in orbit, the concept of the Kessler syndrome and its application to orbital objects, the legal framework pertaining to the issue, mitigation programs and plans, and new orbital satellites constellations under development and how they contribute to the Kessler syndrome threat. The main contribution of the paper is the carried out argument that the lack of a global legal system regulating the use of the Earth’s orbit is a factor that strengthens the threat.

Mankind’s productive use of the low Earth orbit (LEO), from 400-2,000km in altitude, is at risk from increasing counts of debris objects and derelict satellites, which pose collision risks to active spacecraft. Of particular concern to space agencies and industry is the Kessler Syndrome (KS), which is the term for a hypothetical collapse scenario in which collisions between debris and satellites cause more debris, causing a destructive cascade that leaves the orbital environment unusable. In order to better understand this KS tipping point, the KESSYM model has been developed as a stochastic simulation of all the objects in the LEO. This model provides a forecast for the evolution of the orbital environment into the future, including the expected year, if any, that the KS collapse occurs. KESSYM allows for certain risks, such as war or terrorism in space, solar flares, or unconstrained exploitation of the space resources to be analyzed alongside KS mitigation measures, such as the hardening of spacecraft against debris, avoidance of collisions, removal of debris, and effective regulation. The conclusions drawn from the KESSYM simulation are that the KS is almost an inevitability within 200-250 years of today’s date, but can be delayed or avoided altogether if action is taken.

The Kessler syndrome, also known as the Kessler effect, collisional cascading, or ablation cascade, is a scenario proposed by NASA scientists Donald J The Kessler syndrome, also known as the Kessler effect, collisional cascading, or ablation cascade, is a scenario proposed by NASA scientists Donald J. Kessler and Burton G. Cour-Palais in 1978. It describes a situation in which the density of objects in low Earth orbit (LEO) becomes so high due to space pollution that collisions between these objects cascade, exponentially increasing the amount o The Kessler syndrome, also known as the Kessler effect, collisional cascading, or ablation cascade, is a scenario proposed by NASA scientists Donald J. Kessler and Burton G. Cour-Palais in 1978. It describes a situation in which the density of objects in low Earth orbit (LEO) becomes so high due to space pollution that collisions between these objects cascade, exponentially increasing the amount of space debris over time. This proliferation of debris poses significant risks to satellites, space missions, and the International Space Station, potentially rendering certain orbital regions unusable and threatening the sustainability of space activities for many generations. In 2009, Kessler wrote that modeling results indicated the debris environment had already become unstable, meaning that efforts to achieve a growth-free small debris environment by eliminating past debris sources would likely fail because fragments from future collisions would accumulate faster than atmospheric drag could remove them. A…

by space agencies as MMOD (Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris). Collisions with debris have become a hazard to spacecraft. The smallest objects cause damage Space debris (also known as space junk, space pollution, space waste, space trash, space garbage, or cosmic debris) are defunct human-made objects in space – principally in Earth orbit – which no longer serve a useful function. These include derelict spacecraft (nonfunctional spacecraft and abandoned launch vehicle stages), mission-related debris, and fragmentation debris from the breakup of derel The Kessler syndrome, proposed by NASA scientist Donald J. Kessler in 1978, is a theoretical scenario in which the density of objects in low Earth orbit (LEO) is high enough that collisions between objects could cause a cascade effect where each collision generates space debris that increases the likelihood of further collisions. He further theorized that one implication, if this were to occur, is that the distribution of debris in orbit could render space activities and the use of satellites in specific orbital ranges economically impractical for many generations. The growth in the number of objects as a result of the late-1990s studies sparked debate in the space community on the nature of the problem and the earlier dire warnings. According to Kessler's 1991 derivation and 2001 updates, the LEO environment in the 1,000 km (620 mi) altitude range should be cascading. However, only one major satellite collision incident occurred: the 2009 satellite collision between Iridium 33 and Kosmos 2251. The lack of obvious short-term cascading has led to speculation that the original estimates overstated the problem. According to Kessler in 2010, however, a cascade may not…

Mankind's productive use of the low Earth orbit (LEO), from 400-2,000km in altitude, is at risk from increasing counts of debris objects and derelict satellites, which pose collision risks to active spacecraft. Of particular concern to space agencies and industry is the Kessler Syndrome (KS), which is the term for a hypothetical collapse scenario in which collisions between debris and satellites cause more debris, causing a destructive cascade that leaves the orbital environment unusable. In order to better understand this KS tipping point, the KESSYM model has been developed as a stochastic simulation of all the objects in the LEO. This model provides a forecast for the evolution of the orbital environment into the future, including the expected year, if any, that the KS collapse occurs. KESSYM allows for certain risks, such as war or terrorism in space, solar flares, or unconstrained exploitation of the space resources to be analyzed alongside KS mitigation measures, such as the hardening of spacecraft against debris, avoidance of collisions, removal of debris, and effective regulation. The conclusions drawn from the KESSYM simulation are that the KS is almost an inevitability within 200-250 years of today's date, but can be delayed or avoided altogether if action is taken.

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) faces an imminent crisis: over 34,000 tracked debris objects and millions of untracked fragments threaten a cascade collision scenario known as Kessler Syndrome, which could render space access impossible for decades. Current debris removal proposals using chemical propulsion are economically unviable, with costs exceeding $100M per object removed. This paper presents electromagnetic active debris removal (EM-ADR) systems that reduce removal costs by 90-95% through: (1) orbital electromagnetic "tugboats" that capture and deorbit debris using magnetic or electrostatic forces; (2) ground-based electromagnetic launch of capture vehicles at $1M per mission versus $50-100M for rockets; (3) momentum exchange tethers that transfer debris orbital energy without propellant consumption; (4) distributed satellite networks that create electromagnetic "nets" to sweep orbital corridors. Our analysis demonstrates that: EM-ADR can remove 10,000+ objects over 10 years for $10-30B total investment (versus $1+ trillion using conventional methods); break-even occurs at 3,000-5,000 objects removed when accounting for avoided collision costs; the technology exists today (TRL 6-8 for most components). We present mission architectures for LEO cleanup (400-2,000 km), GEO debris mitigation, and prevention of Kessler cascade initiation. This work provides the engineering and economic framework for ensuring long-term orbital sustainability and protecting the $500B/year space economy.

[ES] Desde el lanzamiento del primer satélite en 1957, el número de satélites y objetos artificiales puestos en órbita no ha hecho más que aumentar a un ritmo exponencial, generando una enorme cantidad de basura que se encuentra en órbita terrestre moviéndose a gran velocidad y que supone un gran peligro para toda la actividad espacial y en menor medida por el riesgo de reentrada. En el trabajo se aborda este problema de la basura espacial. Se realiza una introducción al problema, centrándose en cómo se ha llegado a él, así como en la situación actual, futura y en diferentes aspectos; para lue