Immigration from Eastern Europe has increased UK youth unemployment.
the verdict
REFUTED
the evidence says no
refutedsupported
the weight of evidence
0 sources for · 2 against
Economic studies and literature examining immigration from Eastern Europe to the UK indicate that such migration has tended to support employment and economic growth rather than increase unemployment rates.
UK population growth over the last thirty-five years has been remarkably low in comparison with other countries; the population grew by just 7% between 1971 and 2004, less than all the other EU15 countries except Germany. The UK population has grown at a faster pace since the turn of the millennium driven primarily by changes in net migration, and in particular from an influx of migrants from eight East European (A8) countries. There appears to be consistent evidence from the Worker Registration Scheme and National Insurance Number applications that approximately 500,000 migrants from the A8 countries had come to work in the UK between May 2004 and late 2006. But other sources suggest approximately half of these workers have likely returned to their country of origin. We argue that, at present, it appears that A8 immigration has tended to increase supply by more than it has increased demand in the UK (in the short run). This migration flow, we argue, has acted to reduce inflationary pressures and to lower the natural rate of unemployment.
Considering the debates regarding lower increase in the economic growth after Brexit, the main
objective of this paper is to measure the positive impact of economic integration of Central and
Eastern European (CEE) countries on the UK economy and the effect of Brexit on the immigration
from these countries to the UK. The European Union membership of some CEE countries increased,
in average, the number of the UK immigrants by 12 times in the period 2004-2014 compared to the
group of countries formed by Russia and Ukraine. The empirical fi ndings show positive economic
effects of immigration on the UK’s economy, even if the pro Brexit group claimed that a control
of immigration is necessary. CEE countries emigrants stimulated the UK economic growth, price
stability and reduced the homicide rate. The effects of immigration on the unemployment rate,
health and education spending were positive, but very low. According to mixed-effects Poisson
models estimations, after Brexit the number of the UK immigrants from the CEE countries that
are member of the EU might decrease by 2 times. This signifi cant decline in immigration might
impose austerity measures, because of the fall in the economic growth trend with negative impact
on the UK economy. Therefore, we recommend policies that focus more on high-skilled labour force
than on the reduction of the number of immigrants. The UK should propose measures to slow the
expected immigration decline in order to alleviate economic issues like decline in economic growth,
decrease in labour productivity, cutting backs on public services.
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