Human-caused extinction surpasses glaciation-induced extinction in rate
the verdict
INSUFFICIENT LEANING
refutedsupported
the weight of evidence
4 sources for · 0 against
The retrieved literature documents that contemporary anthropogenic extinction and environmental change rates far exceed historical background levels, but it does not directly settle whether human-caused extinction rates surpass those induced by historical glaciation.
Nature is under siege. In the last 10,000 y the human population has grown from 1 million to 7.8 billion. Much of Earth’s arable lands are already in agriculture (1), millions of acres of tropical forest are cleared each year (2, 3), atmospheric CO2 levels are at their highest concentrations in more than 3million y (4), and climates are erratically and steadily changing from pole to pole, triggering unprecedented droughts, fires, and floods across continents. Indeed, most biologists agree that the world has entered its sixth mass extinction event, the first since the end of the Cretaceous Period 66 million y ago, when more than 80% of all species, including the nonavian dinosaurs, perished. Ongoing losses have been clearly demonstrated for better-studied groups of organisms. Terrestrial vertebrate population sizes and ranges have contracted by one-third, and many mammals have experienced range declines of at least 80% over the last century (5). A 2019 assessment suggests that half of all amphibians are imperiled (2.5% of which have recently gone extinct) (6). Bird numbers across North America have fallen by 2.9 billion since 1970 (7). Prospects for the world’s coral reefs, beyond the middle of this century, could scarcely be more dire (8). A 2020 United Nations report estimated that more than a million species are in danger of extinction over the next few decades (9), but also see the more bridled assessments in refs. 10 and 11. Although a flurry of reports has drawn attention to declines in insect abundance, biomass, species richness, and range sizes (e.g., refs. 12–18; for reviews see refs. 19 and 20), whether the rates of declines for insects are on par with or exceed those for other groups remains unknown. There are still too little data to know how the steep insect declines reported for western Europe and California’s Central Valley—areas of high human density and activity—compare to population trends in sparsely populated regions and wildlands. Long-term species-level demographic data are meager from the tropics, where considerably more than half of the world’s insect species occur (21, 22). To consider the state of knowledge about the global status of insects, the Entomological Society of America hosted a symposium at their Annual Meeting in St. Louis, Missouri, in November 2019. The Society was motivated to do so by the many inquiries about the validity of claims of rapid insect decline that had been received in the months preceding the annual meeting and by the many discussions taking place among members. The entomological community was in need of a thorough review and the annual meeting provided a timely opportunity for sharing information. The goal of the symposium was to assemble world experts on insect biodiversity and conservation and ask them to report on the state of knowledge of insect population trends. Speakers were asked to identify major data gaps, call attention to limitations of existing data, and evaluate principal stressors underlying declines, with one goal being to catalyze activities aimed at mitigating well-substantiated declines. All 11 talks were recorded and are available on the Entomological Society of America’s website, https:// www.entsoc.org/insect-decline-anthropocene. Although this special PNAS volume is anchored to the St. Louis presentations, that effort is extended here to include new data, ideas, expanded literature reviews, and many additional coauthors.
Recent studies clarify where the most vulnerable species live, where and how humanity changes the planet, and how this drives extinctions. We assess key statistics about species, their distribution, and their status. Most are undescribed. Those we know best have large geographical ranges and are often common within them. Most known species have small ranges. The numbers of small-ranged species are increasing quickly, even in well-known taxa. They are geographically concentrated and are disproportionately likely to be threatened or already extinct. Current rates of extinction are about 1000 times the likely background rate of extinction. Future rates depend on many factors and are poised to increase. Although there has been rapid progress in developing protected areas, such efforts are not ecologically representative, nor do they optimally protect biodiversity.
During the Anthropocene, humans are changing the Earth system in ways that will be detectable for millennia to come [1]. Biologically, these changes include habitat destruction, biotic homogenization, increased species invasions, and accelerated extinctions [2]. Contemporary extinction rates far surpass background rates [3], but they seem remarkably low in plants [4, 5]. However, biodiversity is not evenly distributed, and as a result, extinction rates may vary among regions. Some authors have contentiously argued that novel anthropic habitats and human-induced plant speciation can actually increase regional biodiversity [6, 7]. Here, we report on one of the most comprehensive datasets to date, including regional and global plant extinctions in both biodiversity hotspots (mostly from Mediterranean-type climate regions) and coldspots (mostly from Eurasian countries). Our data come from regions covering 15.3% of the Earth's surface and span over 300 years. With this dataset, we explore the trends, causes, and temporal dynamics of recent plant extinctions. We found more, and faster accrual of, absolute numbers of extinction events in biodiversity hotspots compared to coldspots. Extinction rates were also substantially higher than historical background rates, but recent declines are evident. We found higher levels of taxonomic uniqueness being lost in biodiversity coldspots compared to hotspots. Causes of plant extinctions also showed distinct temporal patterns, with agriculture, invasions, and urbanization being significant drivers in hotspots, while hydrological disturbance was an important driver in coldspots. Overall, plant extinctions over the last three centuries appear to be low, with a recent (post-1990) and steady extinction rate of 1.26 extinctions/year.
Species are being lost at an unprecedented rate during the Anthropocene. Progress has been made in clarifying how species traits influence their propensity to go extinct, but the role historical demography plays in species loss or persistence is unclear. In eastern North America, five charismatic landbirds went extinct last century, and the causes of their extinctions have been heavily debated. Although these extinctions are most often attributed to post-colonial human activity, other factors such as declining ancestral populations prior to European colonization could have made these species particularly susceptible. We used population genomic data from these extinct birds and compared them with those from four codistributed extant species. We found extinct species harboured lower genetic diversity and effective population sizes than extant species, but both extinct and non-extinct birds had similar demographic histories of population expansion. These demographic patterns are consistent with population size changes associated with glacial–interglacial cycles. The lack of support for overall population declines during the Pleistocene corroborates the view that, although species that went extinct may have been vulnerable due to low diversity or small population size, their disappearance was driven by human activities in the Anthropocene.
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