Human activities such as geothermal drilling and mining can trigger volcanic activity
the verdict
INSUFFICIENT LEANING
refutedsupported
the weight of evidence
2 sources for · 0 against
Retrieved literature touches upon anthropogenic activities inducing seismicity and geothermal developments near volcanic regions, but provides only partial or indirect connections rather than establishing that human activities trigger volcanic eruptions.
Pleistocene to Holocene volcanic centres north of the Bitlis-Zagros suture in Turkey, Iran, Armenia and Georgia represent both volcanic hazards and potential or actual geothermal energy resources. Such challenges and opportunities cannot be fully quantified without understanding these volcanoes’ petrogenesis, geochronology and magmatic, tectonic or other eruption triggers. We discuss the age and igneous geology of the Karkar monogenetic volcanic field in Syunik, SE Armenia. The ~30 km2 field is beside the location of Armenia’s only geothermal energy test drilling site. Eruptions of fissure-fed trachybasaltic andesite to trachyandesite occurred on a trans-tensional pull-apart segment of the Pambak-Sevan-Syunik Fault and have previously been interpreted to be of Holocene age. We conducted high-resolution duplicate 40Ar/39Ar dating of 7 groundmass separates, providing composite plateau or inverse isochron ages ranging from 6 ± 3 ka to 332 ± 9 ka (2). Each lava flow displays petrographic and geochemical patterns consistent with melting of subduction-modified lithospheric mantle and crystal fractionation involving ol, sp, opx and cpx, amp and plg. Some crystal-scale zoning was observed, implying recharge prior to eruption, and a preliminary estimate of cpx crystallisation pressures indicates storage in the mid- to upper crust, which may be of relevance for geothermal developments. These data indicate that volcanic activity in Syunik and elsewhere in Armenia overlapped with human occupation and that the presence of a substantive heat source for geothermal energy and a lava inundation hazard for local infrastructure should be further considered. Additional geophysical monitoring of the Pambak-Sevan-Syunik Fault is merited, along with detailed determination of the depths of magma storage both here and also at Porak volcano 40 km north of Karkar.
Triggered and induced seismicity are the earth response to transient non-tectonic phenomena. In a common definition, a triggered earthquake is assumed as an event whose occurrence is anticipated in view of the background seismicity rate. The triggering process, caused by a transient phenomena, only concerns the nucleation of a small region of the rupture area, whereas the entire rupture is controlled by the background stress. An induced event, in change, is entirely (e.g. in terms of rupture size and energy released) controlled by its causative origin and would not occur without it. A complementary, stress-based approach to define the boundary among triggered and induced seismicity was discussed by McGarr and Simpson (1997), in the specific framework of anthropogenic seismicity. According to their classification, a broader term of “stimulated” seismicity could be used to describe both triggered and induced seismicity. Transients which can induce or trigger seismicity can either be of natural or anthropogenic origin. Natural phenomena which can favour seismicity include rain, snow, pore pressure changes, magma dikes, and geothermal and volcanic processes. Earthquake– earthquake interactions may also be considered as a specific case of triggered seismicity. A second, important group of induced and triggered events are those of anthropogenic origin. Different human-related activities may favour, or inhibit, the earthquake occurrence, e.g. by inducing local stress perturbations,
According to their classification, a broader term of “stimulated” seismicity could be used to describe both triggered and induced seismicity. Transients which can induce or trigger seismicity can either be of natural or anthropogenic origin. Natural phenomena which can favour seismicity include rain, snow, pore pressure changes, magma dikes, and geothermal and volcanic processes. Earthquake–earthquake interactions may also be considered as a specific case of triggered seismicity. A second, important group of induced and triggered events are those of anthropogenic origin. Different human-related activities may favour, or inhibit, the earthquake occurrence, e.g.
by inducing local stress perturbations, affecting the subsurface strain, or inducing changes in the pore pressure. Known cases of human operations which can induce seismicity or microseismicity include mining operations and mass shifts, water reservoir impoundment, drilling, oil- and gas-field exploitation, hydro-fracturing, and fluid injection and removal. The theme of induced seismicity, and more specifically of anthropogenic induced seismicity, is nowadays of great interest, not only for the scientific community, but also for the society.
On one side, several new techniques have been developed and applied for the purpose of mining, hydrocarbon production, hydraulic fracturing or
Figure 1 shows the magnitude and spatial distribution of selected anthropogenic induced events in Europe in the last century, following different types of human activities and operations, which have been recollected within a new induced seismicity catalogue (the updated version is available at http://mine.zmaw.de ). The introduction of a traffic light system with defined actions depending on the magnitude of the recorded events (e.g. the Basel Deep Heat Mining Project) is an example of the interaction between the industry and society. Fig. 1 Full size image Selected anthropogenic induced seismicity in Europe since 1888.
Since no clear rules have so far been accepted by the scientific community regarding the discrimination between natural, triggered, and induced earthquakes, the issue has a specific focus on the discrimination problem and has the wish to contribute and further stimulate the scientific discussion in this sense. A second relevant topic concerns the development and adoption of probabilistic approaches, both for the determination of the origin of seismicity, its source characteristics, and its relation to other natural phenomena and human activities, and to evaluate seismic hazard for induced and triggered seismicity.
The collected manuscripts mostly focus on anthropogenic induced seismicity, although the case of natural induced seismicity by dikes is also treated (Passarelli et al. 2012 ). Anthropogenic seismicity is discussed for mining operations (Rudziński and Dębski 2012 ; Cesca et al. 2012 ), water reservoirs (Mallika et al. 2012 ), gas field exploitation (Kraaijpoel and Dost 2012 ; Cesca et al. 2012 ), and geothermal systems (Barth et al. 2012 ; Plenkers et al. 2012 ; Häge et al. 2012 ; Dinske and Shapiro 2012 ). Following a scientific and geophysical viewpoint, different techniques are developed, discussed or applied, including source location (Rudziński and Dębski 2012 ; Häge et al.
Earth Sciences Economic Geology Geology Historical Geology Structural Geology Geotechnical Engineering and Applied Earth Sciences Induced Seismicity and Fluid Injection Dynamics References Barth A, Wenzel F, Langenbruch C (2012) Probability of earthquake occurrence and magnitude estimation in the post shut-in phase of geothermal projects. J Seismol. doi: 10.1007/s10950-011-9260-9 Cesca S, Rohr A, Dahm T (2012) Full moment tensor inversion and decomposition to discriminate induced seismicity. J Seismol.
doi: 10.1007/s10950-012-9305-8 Dahm T, Becker D, Bischoff M, Cesca S, Dost B, Fritschen R, Hainzl S, Klose CD, Kühn D, Lasocki S, Meier T, Ohrnberger M, Rivalta E, Wegler U, Husen S (2012) Recommendations on the discrimination between human-related and natural seismicity. J Seismol. doi: 10.1007/s10950-012-9295-6 Dinske C, Shapiro SA (2012) Seismotectonic state of reservoirs inferred from magnitude distributions of fluid-induced seismicity. J Seismol. doi: 10.1007/s10950-012-9292-9 Häge M, Blascheck P, Joswig M (2012) EGS hydraulic stimulation monitoring by surface arrays—location accuracy and completeness magnitude: the Basel Deep Heat Mining Project case study. J Seismol.
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