The Wright-Fisher model of allele dynamics forms the basis for most theoretical and applied research in population genetics. Our understanding of genetic drift, and its role in suppressing the deterministic forces of Darwinian selection has relied on the specific form of sampling inherent to the Wright-Fisher model and its diffusion limit. Here we introduce and analyze a broad class of forward-time population models that share the same mean and variance as the Wright-Fisher model, but may otherwise differ. The proposed class unifies and further generalizes a number of population-genetic processes of recent interest, including the Λ and Cannings processes. Even though these models all have the same variance effective population size, they encode a rich diversity of alternative forms of genetic drift, with significant consequences for allele dynamics. We characterize in detail the behavior of standard population-genetic quantities across this family of generalized models. Some quantities, such as heterozygosity, remain unchanged; but others, such as neutral absorption times and fixation probabilities under selection, deviate by orders of magnitude from the Wright-Fisher model. We show that generalized population models can produce startling phenomena that differ qualitatively from classical behavior - such as assured fixation of a new mutant despite the presence of genetic drift. We derive the forward-time continuum limits of the generalized processes, analogous to Kimura's diffusion limit of the Wright-Fisher process, and we discuss their relationships to the Kingman and non-Kingman coalescents. Finally, we demonstrate that some non-diffusive, generalized models are more likely, in certain respects, than the Wright-Fisher model itself, given empirical data from Drosophila populations.

AbstractAll populations are finite in size so that genetic drift will occur in all natural and managed populations. Genetic drift causes both changes in allele frequencies and the loss of genetic variation. Loss of heterozygosity and loss of alleles are t^ghe two primary measures of the loss of genetic variation in populations. Matings between related individuals (i.e., inbreeding) is more common in small populations, and this will lead to inbreeding depression in small populations. Understanding the effects of genetic drift is especially important for conservation because loss of genetic variation and inbreeding depression can reduce the probability of population persistence.

Small island populations are vulnerable to genetic decline via demographic and environmental stochasticity. In the absence of immigration, founder effects, inbreeding and genetic drift are likely to contribute to local extinction risk. Management actions may also have a greater impact on small, closed populations. The demographic and social characteristics of a species can, however, delay the impact of threats. K’gari, a ~ 1 660 km2 island off the Australian east coast and UNESCO World Heritage Site (Fraser Island 1842–2023), supports an isolated population of approximately 70–200 dingoes that represent an ideal opportunity to explore the small island paradigm. To examine temporal and spatial patterns of genetic diversity in this population we analysed single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotype data (72 454 SNPS) for 112 K’gari dingoes collected over a 25-year period (1996 to 2020). Genetic diversity was lower in K’gari dingoes than mainland dingoes at the earliest time point in our study and declined significantly following a management cull in 2001. We did not find any spatial genetic patterns on the island, suggesting high levels of genetic connectivity between socially discrete packs. This connectivity, combined with the social structure and behaviour of dingoes, may act in concert to buffer the population from the impacts of genetic drift in the short term. Nevertheless, a general decline in genetic variation via inbreeding and drift has occurred over the past 20 years which we suggest should be considered in any future management planning for the population. Monitoring patterns of genetic variation, together with a clearer understanding of the social ecology of K’gari dingoes, will aid in the development of measurable genetic targets set over ecologically meaningful timelines, and help ensure continued survival of this culturally important population.

Abstract We analyse how migration from a large mainland influences genetic load and population numbers on an island, in a scenario where fitness-affecting variants are unconditionally deleterious, and where numbers decline with increasing load. Our analysis shows that migration can have qualitatively different effects, depending on the total mutation target and fitness effects of deleterious variants. In particular, we find that populations exhibit a genetic Allee effect across a wide range of parameter combinations, when variants are partially recessive, cycling between low-load (large-population) and high-load (sink) states. Increased migration reduces load in the sink state (by increasing heterozygosity) but further inflates load in the large-population state (by hindering purging). We identify various critical parameter thresholds at which one or other stable state collapses, and discuss how these thresholds are influenced by the genetic vs. demographic effects of migration. Our analysis is based on a ‘semi-deterministic’ analysis, which accounts for genetic drift but neglects demographic stochasticity. We also compare against simulations which account for both demographic stochasticity and drift. Our results clarify the importance of gene flow as a key determinant of extinction risk in peripheral populations, even in the absence of ecological gradients.

Invasive pests threaten food security and devastate ecosystems. A universal problem in their management is that small populations can easily evade detection. This makes identifying new incursions challenging and complicates efforts to eradicate or contain established populations. If newly founded populations exhibited a strong Allee effect, small populations would tend towards extinction and most new incursions would go extinct without the need for detection or intervention. Of course, invasive species rarely exhibit strong Allee effects, but new genetic technologies make it conceivable to impose one. Here we consider how introduction of genetic load can cause a genetic Allee effect that reduces the establishment probability of small founder populations. Using numerical and individual-based modelling, we examine the fate of populations sampled from a larger invasive source population carrying deleterious recessive alleles. Our analysis reveals that the genetic load unmasked by founding can dramatically reduce the establishment probability of small populations across a wide range of parameter space. A sterile mutation effect is more effective than a lethal mutation effect, but X-linkage offers minimal benefit over autosomal inheritance. Although extinction of newly founded populations is a common outcome, it may be challenging to achieve in species with very high reproductive outputs. Distributing deleterious recessive alleles across a large number of loci at low frequencies was more effective than distributing them across fewer loci at higher frequencies. Our findings suggest that driving deleterious recessives into a source population may render it less prone to establish in new areas.

Genetics and demography in biological conservation. Predicting the extinction of single populations or species requires ecological and evolutionary information. Primary demographic factors affecting population dynamics include social structure, life history variation caused by environmental fluctuation, dispersal in spatially heterogeneous environments, and local extinction and colonization. In small populations, inbreeding can greatly reduce the average individual fitness, and loss of genetic variability from random genetic drift can diminish future adaptability to a changing environment. Theory and empirical examples suggest that demography is usually of more immediate importance than population genetics in determining the minimum viable sizes of wild populations. The practical need in biological conservation for understanding the interaction of demographic and genetic factors in extinction may provide a focus for fundamental advances at the interface of ecology and evolution. Published in Science (New York, N.Y.) (1988)

Persistence of common alleles in two related populations or species. Mathematical studies are conducted on three problems that arise in molecular population genetics. (1) The time required for a particular allele to become extinct in a population under the effects of mutation, selection, and random genetic drift is studied. In the absence of selection, the mean extinction time of an allele with an initial frequency close to 1 is of the order of the reciprocal of the mutation rate when 4Nv less than 1, where N is the effective population size and v is the mutation rate per generation. Advantageous mutations reduce the extinction time considerably, whereas deleterious mutations increase it tremendously even if the effect on fitness is very slight. (2) Mathematical formulae are derived for the distribution and the moments of extinction time of a particular allele from one or both of two related populations or species under the assumption of no selection. When 4Nv less than 1, the mean extinction time is about half that for a single population, if the two populations are descended from a common original stock.

Genetic drift is the change in the frequency of an existing allele in a population due to chance. Genetic drift may cause alleles to disappear completely Genetic drift is the change in the frequency of an existing allele in a population due to chance. Genetic drift may cause alleles to disappear completely and thereby reduce genetic variation. It can also cause initially rare alleles to become much more frequent possibly leading to fixation where the initially rare allele displaces all others. In the middle of the 20th century, vigorous debates occ The founder effect is a special case of a population bottleneck, occurring when a small group in a population splinters off from the original population and forms a new one. The random sample of alleles in the just formed new colony is expected to grossly misrepresent the original population in at least some respects. It is even possible that the number of alleles for some genes in the original population is larger than the number of gene copies in the founders, making complete representation impossible. When a newly formed colony is small, its founders can strongly affect the population's genetic make-up far into the future. A well-documented example is found in the Amish migration to Pennsylvania in 1744. Two members of the new colony shared the recessive allele for Ellis–Van Creveld syndrome. Members of the colony and their descendants tend to be religious isolates and remain relatively insular. As a result of many generations of inbreeding, Ellis–Van Creveld syndrome is now much more prevalent among the Amish than in the general population. The difference in gene frequencies between the original population and colony may also trigger the two groups to diverge significantly over the course of many generations. As the difference, or genetic distance, increases, the two separated populations may become distinct, both genetically and phenetically, although not only genetic drift but also natural selection, gene flow, and mutation contribute to this divergence. This potential for relatively rapid changes in the colony's gene frequency led most scientists to consider the founder effect (and by extension, genetic drift) a significant driving force in the evolution of new species. Sewall Wright was the first to attach this significance to random drift and small, newly isolated populations with his shifting balance theory of speciation. Following after Wright, Ernst Mayr created many persuasive models to show that the decline in genetic variation and small population size following the founder effect were critically important for new species to develop. However, there is much less support for this view today since the hypothesis has been tested repeatedly through…