Balance of payments shocks can impact economies in varying degrees depending on their structural characteristics, often leading to the formation of business cycles. These cycles cause key macroeconomic variables, such as output, inflation, and exchange rates, to deviate from their long-term trends. The exchange rate policy and regime play a critical role in determining how these shocks propagate and generate business cycles. This research employs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to evaluate the effects of different balance of payments shocks—including oil exports, non-oil exports, and terms of trade shocks—on major macroeconomic variables in Iran under various exchange rate regimes (ERRs). Using welfare loss criteria and impulse-response functions, the findings indicate that a fixed real ERR results in the least welfare losses under different balance of payments shocks. Additionally, a managed floating ERR performs better than a floating ERR, whereas a fixed nominal ERR incurs the greatest welfare losses. The results also suggest that minimal central bank intervention minimizes the recessionary impact of negative shocks in the short run, although it leads to higher inflationary effects. Introduction Generally, due to the impact of balance of payments shocks in creating business cycles, the existence of equilibrium in the balance of payments is considered one of the important indicators of macroeconomic stability. One significant channels through which the

Using a computable general equilibrium model, this paper examines the growth and welfare effects of three macroeconomic shocks in Uganda during the period 2010 17:changes in terms of trade, changes in international oil prices, and changes in development assistance inflows. Our analysis reveals four key findings. First, the largely positive impact of these three shocks on agriculture and services appears to offset the negative impact on industry leading to minimal deviations in real GDP growth from the business-as usual scenario. Moreover, the three shocks only lead to short-term as opposed to permanent deviations from trend growth in real GDP. Second, the three shocks are transmitted to the domestic economy and real GDP growth through changes in the terms of trade, exchange rate, and cost of production. Third, household welfare decreases and remains below the business-as-usual scenario during the entire simulation. Fourth, the poverty reduction rate is lower under the three external shocks compared to the business-as-usual scenario.

Quebec’s forests represent 20% of Canadian forests and 2% of the world forests. Over the entire planet, forests play a major role in habitat preservation and in supplying goods and services to the population. However, climate change will have an impact on the forest through inter alia increased droughts, forest fires, warmer weather, and infestations. In this paper, we analyze the economic impact of climate change on the forest industry in Quebec over a 40-year period using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model. We find that the climate change effects will be relatively weak on most macroeconomic variables as agents adjust their behavior over time and factors are reallocated across sectors. We find that climate change could generate losses in gross domestic product of up to Can$300 million (0.12% of gross domestic product) at the end of a 40-year period for Quebec’s economy. However, we find relatively more important effects within the sectors of the forest industry, with losses ranging from 3% to 7.5%.

"We adopt a general equilibrium approach in order to measure the effects of recent immigration on the Western German labor market, looking at both wage and employment effects. Using the Regional File of the IAB Employment Subsample for the period 1987-2001, we find that the substantial immigration of the 1990's had no adverse effects on native wages and employment levels. It had instead adverse employment and wage effects on previous waves of immigrants. This stems from the fact that, after controlling for education and experience levels, native and migrant workers appear to be imperfect subst

The research presented in this dissertation began with an investigation of water transfers from rural Colorado to a growing urban region and how this would affect the rural economy. Chapter 1 focuses on the growing concern of water scarcity in the arid western region of the US. In this part of the country, it is widely known that water is limited, and as populations continue to increase, so will the demand for water, which is already in short supply. A multiregional Computable General Equilibrium (MRCGE) model using spatially detailed data was built to study the impact of urban growth on a rur

to the China Shock. Their analysis also found compensating gains in other sectors and regions, suggesting a more limited overall national impact. Clément The Rust Belt, formerly the Steel Belt or Factory Belt, is an area of the United States that underwent substantial industrial decline in the late 20th century. The region is centered in the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic regions of the United States. Common definitions of the Rust Belt include Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The Studies by David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson show that increased free trade with China cost Americans around one million manufacturing workers between 1991 and 2007. Competition from Chinese imports has led to manufacturing job losses and declining wages. They also found that offsetting job gains in other industries never materialized. Closed companies no longer order goods and services from local non-manufacturing firms and former industrial workers may be unemployed for years or permanently. Increased import exposure reduces wages in the non-manufacturing sector due to lower demand for non-manufacturing goods and increased labor supply from workers who have lost their manufacturing jobs. Other work by this team of economists, with Daron Acemoglu and Brendan Price, estimates that competition from Chinese imports cost the U.S. as many as 2.4 million jobs in total between 1999 and 2011. Avraham Ebenstein, Margaret McMillan, Ann Harrison also pointed out in their article “Why are American Workers getting Poorer? China, Trade and Offshoring” these negative effects of trade with China on American workers. Although Autor, Dorn, and Hanson have documented the adverse effects of Chinese import competition on certain U.S. regions, they have emphasized that these findings reflect the broader impact of economic disruptions, including technological change and recessions, rather than trade alone. They do not dispute the overall economic benefits of free trade. Instead of advocating protectionist measures like tariffs, the authors argue that policy responses should focus on helping workers adapt to change. Several empirical studies have challenged or nuanced the conclusions of the influential “China Shock” literature by David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson, which attributes significant U.S. manufacturing job losses to rising Chinese import competition. A general equilibrium model by Caliendo, Dvorkin, and Parro (2019) estimated that only around 15 percent of manufacturing job losses between 2000 and 2007 were attributable to the China Shock. Their analysis also found compensating gains in other sectors and regions, suggesting a more limited overall national…