The fundamental theorem of natural selection was a valiant attempt by R. A. Fisher to fit a quart into a pint pot The present author reviewing Population Genetics by Ewens, 1969 a (Edwards, 1969). Many authors have maintained that the theorem holds only under very special conditions, while only a few (e.g. Edwards, 1967) have thought that Fisher may have been correct – if only we could understand what he meant! It will be shown here that this latter view is correct Price, 1972. My own reason for not including a planned chapter on the fundamental theorem is… [ that ] in spite of many efforts I am still not satisfied that I am able to provide an account that does the theorem justice The present author in the Epilogue to Foundations of Mathematical Genetics (Edwards, 1977).

Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection, that the rate of change of fitness is given by the additive genetic variance of fitness, has generated much discussion since its appearance in 1930. Fisher tried to capture in the formula the change in population fitness attributable to changes of allele frequencies, when all else is not included. Lessard's formulation comes closest to Fisher's intention, as well as this can be judged. Additional terms can be added to account for other changes. The "theorem" as stated by Fisher is not exact, and therefore not a theorem, but it does encapsulate a great deal of evolutionary meaning in a simple statement. I also discuss the effectiveness of reproductive-value weighting and the theorem in integrated form. Finally, an optimum principle, analogous to least action and Hamilton's principle in physics, is discussed.

The mutation-selection process is the most fundamental mechanism of evolution. In 1935, R. A. Fisher proved his fundamental theorem of natural selection, providing a model in which the rate of change of mean fitness is equal to the genetic variance of a species. Fisher did not include mutations in his model, but believed that mutations would provide a continual supply of variance resulting in perpetual increase in mean fitness, thus providing a foundation for neo-Darwinian theory. In this paper we re-examine Fisher's Theorem, showing that because it disregards mutations, and because it is invalid beyond one instant in time, it has limited biological relevance. We build a differential equations model from Fisher's first principles with mutations added, and prove a revised theorem showing the rate of change in mean fitness is equal to genetic variance plus a mutational effects term. We refer to our revised theorem as the fundamental theorem of natural selection with mutations. Our expanded theorem, and our associated analyses (analytic computation, numerical simulation, and visualization), provide a clearer understanding of the mutation-selection process, and allow application of biologically realistic parameters such as mutational effects. The expanded theorem has biological implications significantly different from what Fisher had envisioned.