Federal Reserve rate hikes negatively impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average
the verdict
CONTESTED
contested - the weight sits with the supporting side
refutedsupported
the weight of evidence
3 sources for · 0 against
The listed sources discuss international interest factors and macroeconomic modeling in relation to stock indices like the Dow Jones, but do not establish a direct causal relationship showing that Federal Reserve rate hikes negatively impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The stock markets are too complex to predict, despite their non-linearity, volatility, and multifactorial nature. Current econometric and deep learning models often do not take into account the macroeconomic context, which restricts predictive accuracy at times of financial volatility. This paper attempts to fill this gap by proposing a Hybrid Deep Learning Model (HDLM), a machine that combines Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), and an attention mechanism that can jointly include both the dynamic behavior of the market and the economic links in the trends of the U.S. market. The analysis is based on a strictly tested data set of 20102023, which was retrieved from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Yahoo Finance, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. These include all significant equity indexes such as the S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, prime macroeconomic indicators such as the GDP growth, inflation rates, interest rates, and unemployment levels. Correlation analysis, multiple regression, Granger causality tests, Johansen cointegration procedures, and volatility modeling using ARCH GARCH models are the statistical methods used. The findings show that GDP growth has a statistically significant positive impact on market returns ( = 0.58, p = 0.001), though inflation ( = -0.21, p = 0.021), interest rates ( = -0.34, p = 0.002), and unemployment ( = -0.42, p = 0.001) have significant negative predictive power (R 2 = 0.68). The HDLM achieves a better predictive performance with RMSE = 1.89, MAPE = 4.9% and DA = 83.6% > 23% better than the baseline LSTM and CNN- LSTM settings. The model minimizes prediction error by 36.1% in cases of strong market shocks, which occur under simulated stress conditions, confirming an increased financial strength. Taken together, the results of the studies support the idea that the incorporation of macroeconomic intelligence into hybrid neural systems significantly enhances forecast reliability and stability of the system. The current research, therefore, adds a strong, interpretive, and policy-related framework to the research fields of predictive finance and resilience engineering systems to predict market upheavals.
Abstract Introduction – Emerging markets are under the influence of many external factors in global market conditions. International interest rates and price fluctuations in major stock market indices are also among these factors. The FED policies shape the international capital movements in particular, which significantly affects the emerging markets. For this reason, emerging stock markets may show different reactions especially in times of crisis. Purpose – The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the BIST30 index acted in accordance with the overreaction hypothesis (ORH) against the return changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index in the process of the 2008 global financial crisis. Methodology – The data set of the study was analysed by dividing it into two periods. The first period is the monetary expansion period between 17 August 2007, when the Federal Reserve (FED) reduced the interest rate for the first time, until 22 May 2013 when the FED announced that it would reduce the bond purchases. The second period is the monetary contraction period including the dates between 23 May 2013 and 1 June 2017. An error correction model (ECM) was established in both periods for the indices, determined as cointegrated. The validity of the ORH was tested by Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) Analysis. Findings – According to the ECM, the authors identified that the effect of short-term changes in the DJIA return in the monetary expansion period on BIST30 inde
This paper presents a comprehensive spatiotemporal decomposition of equity returns for nine top-weighted constituents of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) over a twenty-year period spanning January 2004 through December 2023, encompassing 5033 trading days and multiple market regimes, including the Global Financial Crisis (2008–2009), the COVID-19 crash and recovery (2020), and the Federal Reserve tightening cycle (2022–2023). Daily price movements are systematically partitioned into two orthogonal sessions: the open-to-close (OTC, or daytime) session, capturing within-session price discovery, and the close-to-open (CTO, or overnight) session, capturing the accumulated information arrival and liquidity dynamics between market closes and subsequent opens. Within this bipartite return framework, we construct and rigorously evaluate 24 distinct trading strategies, spanning directional (long/short), neutral (cash), momentum (inertia), and contrarian (reversal) approaches, applied independently to each session or in combinatorial cross-session configurations. Each strategy is evaluated under three transaction cost regimes (0, 1, and 2 basis points per trade) using an initial investment of $100, and assessed using annualized return, annualised volatility, Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, and maximum drawdown. The study universe—comprising UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Goldman Sachs (GS), Microsoft (MSFT), Home Depot (HD), Caterpillar (CAT), Amgen (AMGN), McDonald’s (MCD), Salesforce
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