Excessive foreign reserves cause domestic inflation
the verdict
CONTESTED PARTIAL
refutedsupported
the weight of evidence
2 sources for · 1 against
The retrieved literature discusses foreign exchange reserves in relation to macroeconomic variables, exchange rates, and imports, but does not establish that excessive foreign reserves cause domestic inflation.
This paper empirically investigates the effect of money supply, inflation, foreign reserves, and external debt, on exchange rates among East African partner states over the period from 2000 to 2023.The study analyzed data from countries in the East African region, utilizing fixed-effects regression model. Secondary data was sourced from world bank databases. The final sample included countries that met the inclusion criteria, providing meaningful observations for analysis. The results suggest that money supply and external debt have significant positive relationships with exchange rate, indicating that increases in these factors are associated with appreciating exchange rates. Foreign reserves were found to have a negative and significant effect on exchange rates, indicating that higher foreign reserves help stabilize or strengthen currencies. However, inflation was found to have no significant effect on exchange rates, suggesting that its impact may be overshadowed by other macroeconomic factors. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for policymakers in East Africa, highlighting the importance of managing money supply, external debt, and foreign reserves to stabilize exchange rates. Policymakers can use these results to develop strategies aimed at controlling inflationary pressures and strengthening foreign reserves to mitigate exchange rate volatility. The study also offers guidance for future economic planning and policy formulation.
Abstract This paper examines the role of foreign exchange reserve demand in mitigating inflationary pressures resulting from money supply growth in reserve currency issuing states (RCISs). Despite recurrent substantial monetary expansions in RCISs in response to recessions such as the 2000 Post-Dot Com Bubble, the 2008 Great Recession, and the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic-induced recession, RCISs have not experienced commensurate inflation. Within the framework of the Quantity Theory of Money (QTM), factors such as economic slowdown and reduction in the velocity of money may contribute to dampening inflationary pressure that stems from money supply growth; however, GDP slowdowns have not explained the disproportionally low inflation in RCISs compared to their monetary expansions, and the impact of reduction in the velocity on lowering inflation remains unclear due to limited real-world data. In contrast, there is reliable data for foreign exchange reserve demand, characterized by currency exports in exchange for real economic resources of equivalent value. By analyzing the relationship between money supply growth, foreign exchange reserve demand, and inflation within the framework of QTM, this paper introduces the foreign exchange reserve demand-inflation buffer hypothesis. The theoretical and empirical investigation sheds light on the role of foreign exchange reserve demand in moderating inflationary pressures in RCISs.
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Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice
their imports or foreign assets purchases with the international seigniorage gains
accruing from the expansion of international reserves held in their currencies.
Osman (2023a) discussed how fiat reserve currencies yield imperial rents to their
issuing states and by using the QTM he provided a method to estimate the cumu-
lative quantity of this rent using the tenets of the QTM and he estimated that in
the period 1971-2021, the cumulative rent for the US Dollar, the Euro, the British
Pound Sterling, and the Japanese Yen amounted to ~11.1 trillion USD. A paper
released by the European Central Bank (2019) confirmed the existence of an ex -
orbitant privilege that benefits all reserve currencies issuing states by lowering
government borrowing costs and estimated that the term premiums on govern -
ment bonds are reduced by 0.93 for the U.S, 0.13 for Japan, 0.74 for the U.K, and
1.38 for the euro area. The benefits enjoyed by the RCISs are the ability to borrow
in their currencies, which entails lower borrowing costs, the existence of a high
level of immunity against the balance of payment shocks, maintaining low inter-
est rates which is a stimulus to economic activity, and giving a competitive edge
which the financial institutions, firms, and consumers of RCISs hold over their
counterparts in non-reserve currency issuing states (NRCISs) in international
and domestic markets.
While the literature emphasized the exorbitant privilege of reserve currency as
the ability to achieve international seigniorage, and the low borrowing costs asso-
ciated with the massive capital inflows to RCISs due to the reserve status of their
currencies, the literature has not adequately investigated the role of reserve cur -
rency status in mitigating inflationary pressures that result from excess money
supply growth. Particularly, the literature has bypassed analyzing the fact that
foreign exchange reserve demand, through its effect on the local money supply
and income, may provide an inflation buffer against excess money supply growth
in RCISs.
As Table 1 shows, the amounts of the allocated worldwide official holdings of for-
eign exchange reserves are colossal. The amount of the
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Introducing the Foreign Exchange Reserve Demand – Inflation Buffer Hypothesis
P2r < P 2, as = (M2r * V) / (Yr) < M2 * V/Y, as (M2 - R) * V/(Y + R) < M2 * V/Y
and the inflation rate in the reserve currency condition would always be less than
the inflation rate in the non-reserve currency condition since:
Π2 < Π1, as (P2r - P1) / P1 < (P2 - P1) / P1 since P2r < P 2
The algebraic modelling of the Quantity Theory of Money with the incorporation
of foreign exchange reserve demand shows that in the reserve currency condi -
tion, the price level (P2r), and consequentially inflation (Π2r), are affected not only
by changes in the money supply, output shocks, and the velocity of money, but
also by changes in the demand for the reserve currency through its effect on the
money supply and income via transfers of real output from abroad. Therefore, if
the demand for the reserve currency increases, it offsets the inflationary effects of
a given increase in the money supply, thereby mitigating inflation.
While
6 it holds true that the majority of reserve currency acquisitions swiftly
re-enter the circulation of reserve currency-issuing states, it is imperative to de -
lineate that this re-entry takes place in the form of capital investment, which falls
within the purview of the 'investment' component in Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) calculations. This capital infusion assumes various forms, encompassing
investments in debt instruments such as treasury securities, acquisitions of eq -
uities in the private sector, ventures in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and in
other investment asset classes. Consequently, the reintroduction of currency into
the economies of reserve currency-issuing states engenders an expansion of both
the monetary base (M) and economic output (Y) in direct proportion. Within
the framework of the equilibrium equation denoted as P = M.V/Y, the price level
(P) remains unchanged. Hence, the inflation buffer provided by foreign exchange
reserve demand expected to remain intact.
4. Examining the Reserve Demand’s Inflation Buffer Through
Econometric Analysis
This segment provides an econometric analysis to determine whether the influ -
ence of reserve demand on inflation in RCISs is significant.
6 Clarification for footnote 5.
The purpose of this study was to test and analyze how Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves were affected by imports, exports, inflation, and foreign debt. Regarding the relationship between Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves and imports, exports, inflation, and foreign debt for the 2019–2023 timeframe, there is a gap between theory and empirical data, which makes this study noteworthy. In order to regulate it and preserve economic stability, it is crucial to constantly track the movement of foreign exchange reserves. Data for the study were taken from official publications of Bank Indonesia (BI), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), and the Indonesian Economic and Financial Statistics (SEKI). Monthly data was gathered for the study between 2019 and 2023. Using time series data for the 2019–2023 period, including monthly data and up to 60 series data, the sampling was carried out in Indonesia. using conventional hypothesis testing (t, f, and determination tests) and assumption checking (multicollinearity, normality, and heterokedasitas tests) to estimate multiple linear regression. While imports, exports, inflation, and foreign debt are independent factors, foreign exchange reserves are the dependent variable. The results of the study show that the dependent variable is influenced by two independent variables. Foreign exchange reserves are positively impacted by exports, but negatively by inflation. Furthermore, imports and foreign debt have no effect on foreign exchange reserves, making them independent variables that do not affect the dependent variable.
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