If man-made dust is unimportant as a major cause of climatic change, then a strong case can be made that the present cooling trend will, within a decade or so, give way to a pronounced warming induced by carbon dioxide. By analogy with similar events in the past, the natural climatic cooling which, since 1940, has more than compensated for the carbon dioxide effect, will soon bottom out. Once this happens, the exponential rise in the atmospheric carbon dioxide content will tend to become a significant factor and by early in the next century will have driven the mean planetary temperature beyond the limits experienced during the last 1000 years.

Abstract. Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere which is driving global warming. This Earth energy imbalance (EEI) is the most critical number defining the prospects for continued global warming and climate change. Understanding the heat gain of the Earth system – and particularly how much and where the heat is distributed – is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming ocean, atmosphere and land; rising surface temperature; sea level; and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory and presents an updated assessment of ocean warming estimates as well as new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period 1960–2018. The study obtains a consistent long-term Earth system heat gain over the period 1971–2018, with a total heat gain of 358±37 ZJ, which is equivalent to a global heating rate of 0.47±0.1 W m−2. Over the period 1971–2018 (2010–2018), the majority of heat gain is reported for the global ocean with 89 % (90 %), with 52 % for both periods in the upper 700 m depth, 28 % (30 %) for the 700–2000 m depth layer and 9 % (8 %) below 2000 m depth. Heat gain over land amounts to 6 % (5 %) over these periods, 4 % (3 %) is available for the melting of grounded and floating ice, and 1 % (2 %) is available for atmospheric warming. Our results also show that EEI is not only continuing, but also increasing: the EEI amounts to 0.87±0.12 W m−2 during 2010–2018. Stabilization of climate, the goal of the universally agreed United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the Paris Agreement in 2015, requires that EEI be reduced to approximately zero to achieve Earth's system quasi-equilibrium. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would need to be reduced from 410 to 353 ppm to increase heat radiation to space by 0.87 W m−2, bringing Earth back towards energy balance. This simple number, EEI, is the most fundamental metric that the scientific community and public must be aware of as the measure of how well the world is doing in the task of bringing climate change under control, and we call for an implementation of the EEI into the global stocktake based on best available science. Continued quantification and reduced uncertainties in the Earth heat inventory can be best achieved through the maintenance of the current global climate observing system, its extension into areas of gaps in the sampling, and the establishment of an international framework for concerted multidisciplinary research of the Earth heat inventory as presented in this study. This Earth heat inventory is published at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ, https://www.dkrz.de/, last access: 7 August 2020) under the DOI https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/GCOS_EHI_EXP_v2 (von Schuckmann et al., 2020).

The change in global mean surface temperature is a crucial and broadly used indicator of the evolution of climate change. Any decadal scale changes in warming rate are however obfuscated by internal variability. Here we show that the surface temperature increase through the recent La Nina influenced years (2022) is consistent with the 50-year trend of 0.18 °C/decade. We use an Earth System Model based tool to filter out modulations to the warming rate by sea-surface temperature patterns and find consistent warming rates in four major global temperature data series. However, we also find clear indications, in all observational series, of a step-up in warming rate since around 1990. CMIP6 models generally do not capture this observed combination of long-term warming rate and recent increase.

Significance Climate models use pre-industrial atmosphere as the reference to evaluate the impacts of human activities on the Earth’s radiation balance. Sea spray aerosols (SSA) are the key component in the relatively pristine preindustrial conditions that substantially affect model calculations. Currently, the abundance of SSA is poorly constrained. In particular, studies on the influence of sea surface temperature on SSA production have shown disparate results. This uncertainty arises from limited field measurements, especially over remote oceans. Our global aircraft measurements over the remote Pacific and Atlantic Oceans show that higher sea surface temperature enhances the production of SSA. Updating the current parameterization in global models using our observational constraints will improve the estimate of atmospheric SSA budget and human-induced climate change. Natural aerosols in pristine regions form the baseline used to evaluate the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on climate. Sea spray aerosol (SSA) is a major component of natural aerosols. Despite its importance, the abundance of SSA is poorly constrained. It is generally accepted that wind-driven wave breaking is the principle governing SSA production. This mechanism alone, however, is insufficient to explain the variability of SSA concentration at given wind speed. The role of other parameters, such as sea surface temperature (SST), remains controversial. Here, we show that higher SST promotes SSA mass generation at a wide range of wind speed levels over the remote Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, in addition to demonstrating the wind-driven SSA production mechanism. The results are from a global scale dataset of airborne SSA measurements at 150 to 200 m above the ocean surface during the NASA Atmospheric Tomography Mission. Statistical analysis suggests that accounting for SST greatly enhances the predictability of the observed SSA concentration compared to using wind speed alone. Our results support implementing SST into SSA source functions in global models to better understand the atmospheric burdens of SSA.

almost entirely caused this increase. Since 1750 methane has contributed 3% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in terms of mass but is responsible for Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (around 1750), the methane concentration in the atmosphere has increased by about 160%, and human activities almost entirely caused this increase. Since 1750 methane has contributed 3% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in terms of mass but is responsible for approximately 23% of radiative or climate forcing. By 2019, global methane concentrations ha Methane (CH4) in the Earth's atmosphere is a powerful greenhouse gas with a global warming potential (GWP) 84 times greater than CO2 over a 20-year time frame. Methane is not as persistent as CO2, and tails off to about 28 times greater than CO2 over a 100-year time frame. Radiative or climate forcing is the scientific concept used to measure the human impact on the environment in watts per square meter (W/m2). It refers to the "difference between solar irradiance absorbed by the Earth and energy radiated back to space" The direct radiative greenhouse gas forcing effect of methane was estimated to be an increase of 0.5 W/m2 relative to the year 1750 (estimate in 2007). In their 2021 "Global Methane Assessment" report, the UNEP and CCAC said that their "understanding of methane's effect on radiative forcing" improved with research by teams led by M. Etminan in 2016, and William Collins in 2018. This resulted in an "upward revision" since the 2014 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The "improved understanding" says that prior estimates of the "overall societal impact of methane emissions" were likely underestimated. Etminan et al. published their new calculations for methane's radiative forcing (RF) in a 2016 Geophysical Research Letters journal article which incorporated the shortwave bands of CH4 in measuring forcing, not used in previous, simpler IPCC methods. Their new RF calculations which significantly revised those cited in earlier, successive IPCC reports for well mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHG) forcings by including the shortwave forcing component due to CH4, resulted in estimates that were approximately 20–25% higher. Collins et al. said that CH4 mitigation that reduces atmospheric methane by the end of the century, could "make a substantial difference to the feasibility of achieving the Paris climate targets", and would provide us with more "allowable carbon emissions to 2100". In addition to the direct heating effect and the normal feedbacks, the methane breaks down to carbon dioxide and water. This water is often above the tropopause, where little water usually reaches. Ramanathan (1998) notes that both water and ice clouds, when formed at cold…

20 years is due to fossil fuel burning. The rest is predominantly due to land-use change … is likely7 to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. Furthermore … effects due to mineral dust is itself an uncertainty. The indirect forcing due to tropospheric