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the claim
Drivers' self-perceptions of ability correlate strongly with actual driving ability
the verdict
CONTESTED PARTIAL
refutedsupported
the weight of evidence
1 source for · 4 against

Available studies indicate that drivers' self-assessments frequently diverge from their actual performance, demonstrating poor calibration and overconfidence rather than a strong correlation with actual driving ability.

Evidence for · 1
cited by 0
Age differences in male drivers' perception of accident risk: the role of perceived driving ability. Young (18-25) and older (35-50) male drivers were compared in their perception of driving risk and confidence in driving ability. Both groups provided responses a questionnaire on accident risk and driving ability and further generated subjective ratings of risk to a series of videotaped sequences depicting various elements of driving behavior. Although young drivers' estimates of accident involvement in the next year were higher than those of older drivers, young drivers gave lower ratings of accident risk for specific driving situations which demanded fast driving reflexes or substantial vehicle-handling skills. Young drivers rated their own risk of an accident and driving abilities as being the same as for older drivers. However, they saw their peers as being significantly higher at risk and having poorer abilities than themselves. Young drivers were more confident in their driving abilities than the older drivers. Evidence is provided to suggest that perceived risk and self-perceived driving abilities are interrelated.
Evidence against · 4
2024 · cited by 2
Self-assessed driving ability may differ from actual driving performance, leading to poor calibration (i.e., differences between self-assessed driving ability and actual performance), increased risk of accidents and unsafe driving behaviour. Factors such as sleep restriction and sedentary behaviour can impact driver workload, which influences driver calibration. This study aims to investigate how sleep restriction and prolonged sitting impact driver workload and driver calibration to identify strategies that can lead to safer and better calibrated drivers. Participants (n = 84, mean age = 23.5 ± 4.8, 49 % female) undertook a 7-day laboratory study and were randomly allocated to a condition: sitting 9-h sleep opportunity (Sit9), breaking up sitting 9-h sleep opportunity (Break9), sitting 5-h sleep opportunity (Sit5) and breaking up sitting 5-h sleep opportunity (Break5). Break9 and Break5 conditions completed 3-min of light-intensity walking on a treadmill every 30 min between 09:00-17:00 h, while participants in Sit9 and Sit5 conditions remained seated. Each participant completed a 20-min simulated commute in the morning and afternoon each day and completed subjective assessments of driving ability and perceived workload before and after each commute. Objective driving performance was assessed using a driving simulator measuring speed and lane performance metrics. Driver calibration was analysed using a single component and 3-component Brier Score. Correlational matrices were conducted as an exploratory analysis to understand the strength and direction of the relationship between subjective and objective driving outcomes. Analyses revealed participants in Sit9 and Break9 were significantly better calibrated for lane variability, lane position and safe zone-lane parameters at both time points (p < 0.0001) compared to Sit5 and Break5. Break5 participants were better calibrated for safe zone-speed and combined safe zone parameters (p < 0.0001) and speed variability at both time points (p = 0.005) compared to all other conditions. Analyses revealed lower perceived workload scores at both time points for Sit9 and Break9 participants compared to Sit5 and Break5 (p = <0.001). Breaking up sitting during the day may reduce calibration errors compared to sitting during the day for speed keeping parameters. Future studies should investigate if different physical activity frequency and intensity can reduce calibration errors, and better align a driver's self-assessment with their actual performance.
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rails:sufficiency:partial_only:for=0+1p:against=0+4p | v55:contested_partial:lean=lean_partial:even:no_signal

More against · 3
2025 · cited by 1
Whereas numerous studies have reported drivers' overconfidence in their driving ability, this study examines overconfidence in one's multitasking abilities operationalized as overestimation (perception relative to one's actual performance) and overplacement (perception relative to others' abilities) as predictors of texting while driving (TWD). This study also examines TWD self-efficacy as an explanatory mechanism for the relationship between overconfidence and TWD. A sample of 611 undergraduate students (34 % male, mean age of 19.52 years) from a southwestern US university completed an online task-switching paradigm to assess their multitasking ability and multiple self-report measures of TWD-related constructs. TWD was also measured using phone application data. Results indicated that overconfidence (both overestimation and overplacement) was more strongly related to TWD self-efficacy than self-efficacy to resist TWD. TWD self-efficacy explained the relationships between overconfidence and TWD. Additionally, TWD self-efficacy predicted self-reported and actual TWD above and beyond self-efficacy to resist TWD and vice versa. Actual multitasking ability was not significantly related to actual or self-reported TWD. Overall, these findings provide evidence for the influence of overconfidence in multitasking and two forms of self-efficacy on TWD. Implications as well as future directions for research are discussed.
2021 · cited by 0
Observation ability, which is the basis of following decision-making and vehicle manipulation behaviour, is of great importance while driving. However, the subject self-cognition and objective assessment of driving ability are usually different, especially for the young novice drivers. In this paper, drivers' observation abilities for both static traffic signs and markings and dynamic surrounding vehicles were investigated based on questionnaire data. Effects of gender and driving characteristics (driving year, driving frequency, driving time) on drivers' observation abilities were verified by ANOVA analysis and structural equation model (SEM) from two aspects: drivers' self-assessment scores (self-assessment) and mutual assessment scores (evaluated by others). Significant difference could be found between all the factors and drivers' self-assessment scores, while only driving year had a significant effect on drivers' mutual assessment scores. Besides, cognitive bias was found between all the driving year groups. It seemed that drivers with driving experience less than one year were always overconfident with their driving abilities. And drivers with driving experience more than three years usually gave the most conservative assessment scores for themselves and others. With more exposures to various traffic conditions, experienced drivers are more aware of their limitations on observing surrounding information, while young novice drivers still not realized their limitations on observing traffic signs and other vehicles in a right way. However, the subject self-cognition and objective assessment of driving ability are usually different, especially for the young novice drivers. In this paper, drivers’ observation abilities for both static traffic signs and markings and dynamic surrounding vehicles were investigated based on questionnaire data. Effects of gender and driving characteristics (driving year, driving frequency, driving time) on drivers’ observation abilities were verified by ANOVA analysis and structural equation model (SEM) from two aspects: drivers’ self-assessment scores (self-assessment) and mutual assessment scores (evaluated by others). Studies have found that novice drivers’ observation abilities could be alleviated significantly by improving their driving experience [ 9 ]. Following driving practice, more and more useful information including both static road environment and dynamic traffic participants can be noticed by novice drivers [ 10 ]. Although novice drivers’ observation ability can be enhanced by practice, their self-cognition of driving abilities cannot be improved by this way [ 11 ]. Self-cognition of driving ability is an important factor which may affect drivers’ driving decision and their vehicle control behaviour [ 12 ]. But drivers are usually not able to make exact judgments during driving, i.e., judgment errors or inconsistencies between the judgment itself and the real traffic situation may occur, which is called cognitive bias. Cognitive bias of driving ability has been widely approved in previous studies [ 13 , 14 ]. It was shown that many factors can affect drivers’ self-cognition of driving ability, such as age, gender, education, and driving practice [ 15 , 16 ]. Results generated due to cognitive bias can be categorized into two types: one is underestimation and the other one is overestimation. And with drivers’ driving year increased, both male and female drivers’ SAS increased, except for female drivers with driving experience of 1–3 years. Similarly, significant effects of driving frequency and driving time on drivers’ SAS were found for both static and dynamic conditions (show in Table 4 ). It was shown that with more practical driving experience, i.e., a higher driving frequency and more driving time, drivers’ SAS of observation ability increased as well (as shown in Figs 4 and 5 , respectively). 10.1371/journal.pone.0251195.g002 Fig 2 Effect of driving year on self-assessment scores (SAS) under different driving year conditions. According to the results in section 3.4, two kinds of cognitive bias can be obtained. The first cognitive bias is the overconfidence induced by novice drivers. For the driving year “<1” group, their SAS were much higher than the MAS. Studies have shown that drivers with low driving ability are less accurate in self-assessment than those with high driving ability [ 36 ]. One cause of cognitive bias is that respondents wanted to present their positive views to the researchers even though considering themselves no higher than average [ 38 ]). The form of online survey in this paper could weaken this effect because lacking of the face-to-face mental stress. More likely, the inaccurate self-assessment of observation ability was caused by the lack of accurate cognition of driving ability [ 36 ]. This can well explain the first cognitive bias of novice drivers’ overconfident in this paper. For the irregular mutual-assessment of drivers in “1~3” group, it showed their most optimistic attitude for driving. Regular driving practice will rapidly improve novice drivers’ observation ability for simple scenario. As the rising of confident, novice drivers gradually try a more difficult driving task, such as higher speed and more lanes change [ 42 ]. Then they may meet part complex scenario which corresponds to a higher need for observation. The observation difficult improvement will slow the growth trend of self-confidence, until it gets closer and closer to actual observation. Even part experienced drivers may less self-confident after coping with more and more complex scenarios, especially seeing or involving in a traffic accident. 10.1371/journal.pone.0251195.g010 Fig 10 Observation ability change schematic following the rising of driving years. What can we do to improve novice drivers’ driving safety? We can provide solutions from three aspects. One is to reduce their cognitive observation ability. Provide driver
2026 · cited by 0
BACKGROUND: Personality traits and habitual driving styles shape driving proficiency and crash risk, yet gender-specific patterns in Korean drivers remain underexplored. We examined how Big Five traits and multidimensional driving styles relate to perceived driving proficiency and traffic risk by gender. METHODS: In-person surveys were completed by 645 licensed drivers (323 men, 322 women; age 20–60). Measures included the Big Five Inventory, a Korean-adapted Multidimensional Driving Style Inventory (MDSI), and a modified Driver Skill Inventory, demographic variables: driving frequency, self-reported crashes, and traffic violation. Confirmatory factor analysis supported the MDSI. Hierarchical regressions modeled perceived proficiency analyses were stratified by gender. RESULTS: Men reported higher openness and aggressive/risky styles; women scored higher on neuroticism and patient/careful styles. Across genders, anxious driving style consistently predicted lower perceived proficiency, whereas conscientiousness and angry style predicted higher perceived proficiency; neuroticism lowered proficiency in men. Perceived proficiency tended to correlate positively with violations in both genders, suggesting possible overconfidence. CONCLUSION: Personality and driving styles show gender-specific links to perceived skill and safety outcomes among Korean drivers. Findings suggest that gender-tailored interventions may be beneficial. Specifically, these interventions could target emotional regulation (anxiety/anger), speed management, and confidence calibration. Such approaches would incorporate personality-informed, culturally sensitive strategies to improve road safety.
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first checked01 Aug 2026
judged → INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE · 001 Aug 2026
held for human review08 Aug 2026
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