Completing a postdoctoral fellowship increases subsequent publication output and tenure-track placement
the verdict
INSUFFICIENT LEANING
refutedsupported
the weight of evidence
2 sources for · 0 against
Evidence indicates that certain postdoctoral fellowships can increase publication output, but the retrieved sources do not fully establish both increased output and subsequent tenure-track placement as a combined causal outcome of completing a fellowship.
E B
exp( B )
Total publications
1.01
0.53
2.75 (0.97–7.80)*
First-author publications
1.27
0.59
3.57 (1.12–11.35)*
Courses
0.01
0.23
1.10 (0.70–1.74)
Students mentored
0.13
0.11
1.14 (0.91–1.43)
Discipline
1.66
0.79
5.27 (1.11–24.87)*
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* p < 0.05. Because scientific publications are a primary measure of the quality of an applicant for a faculty position, this number was quantified from each of the study participants and aligned with the actual position attained after completing the program. Results indicate that the number of publications varied depending on the type of academic position obtained ( Figure 1 ). Scholars who attained tenure-track faculty positions had a greater number of publications (mean = 7.5, median = 6) compared with scholars who transitioned into non–tenure-track or nonacademic positions (mean = 5.6, median = 5), which approached significance (analysis of variance [ANOVA], F = 3.25, p = 0.075). This result is not surprising, since most tenure-track positions require evidence of research productivity at the time of application with the expectation of continue publishing as faculty.
Figure 1.
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Distribution of the number of publications as a function of type of career position. Mean indicated by horizontal bar. F/URM/D, female, underrepresented racial minority, and/or disability status. Comparison of number of publications between non–tenure-track outcome and tenure-track outcomes approached significance (ANOVA, F = 3.25, p = 0.075). We investigated the diversity composition of the different career outcomes of SPIRE scholars ( Figure 1 ). For clarity, the dichotomous comparisons (i.e., males, non-URMs, and WRM) are not shown. For SPIRE scholars who attained academic faculty positions (instructors/teaching professors plus tenure-track faculty in positions that balance teaching/research plus tenure-track faculty at R1 institutions), 69% were female (45 out of 65) 29% were URM (19 out of 65), and 85% (55 out of 65)
This study examines the factors that promote the transition of postdocs into academic careers and increase diversity in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics. Data indicate that SPIRE scholars ( n = 77) transition into faculty positions at three times the national average with a greater proportion of underrepresented racial minorities (URMs) and females represented among SPIRE scholars. Logistic regression models indicate that significant predictors are the intended career track at the start of the postdoctoral training and the number of publications.
The postdoctoral training experience is intended to enhance a scientist’s research skills, professional development, and independence. There is a need for more research and reporting of
Reports have shown that an average 19.4% of all doctoral recipients across science, engineering, and health hold tenured and tenure-track faculty positions 3–5 yr after receipt of their degrees ( NSF, 2016 ). In addition, and even more pronounced after the economic downturn of 2008, some view the postdoctoral time period as a holding pattern that does not have a defined timeline for postdoctoral scholars waiting for academic positions to become available ( Powell, 2015 ). Several factors are associated with transition into academic positions.
Because scientific publications are a primary measure of the quality of an applicant for a faculty position, this number was quantified from each of the study participants and aligned with the actual position attained after completing the program. Results indicate that the number of publications varied depending on the type of academic position obtained ( Figure 1 ). Scholars who attained tenure-track faculty positions had a greater number of publications (mean = 7.5, median = 6) compared with scholars who transitioned into non–tenure-track or nonacademic positions (mean = 5.6, median = 5), which approached significance (analysis of variance [ANOVA], F = 3.25, p = 0.075).
Overall, the proportion of scholars with known career outcomes ( n = 77) who obtained tenure-track faculty and academic track positions before 2008 was slightly higher at 80% than post-2008 at 65%; however, this difference was not significant (χ 2 = 2.31, p = 0.13; Figure 2B ). Thus, data show that postdoctoral scholars completing the SPIRE program continue to attain faculty positions at a higher rate compared with PhD holders with up to 5 yr since degree completion (19.4%; NSF, 2016 ; Figure 2B ).
Predictors of Career Outcomes The data in this study support previous findings indicating that the factors predicting a successful transition into faculty positions are 1) the postdoctoral scholars’ intended career track when they enter their postdoctoral position, 2) the total number of scientific publications, and 3) the number of first-author scientific publications they produced during their graduate and postdoctoral training. Previous research indicates that the decisions postdocs make about their career trajectories mid–graduate studies often predict their subsequent success as faculty within STEM disciplines ( Fuhrmann et al. , 2011 ; Gibbs et al. , 2015 ).
Insights about Broadening Participation Career outcomes reported from our study are particularly striking in the context of workforce diversity, since the sample group included a larger percentage of female and URM postdoctoral scholars than the national sample. Female SPIRE scholars obtained academic faculty positions, inclusive of instructors/lecturers through tenure-track faculty, at a higher rate (45 out of 65, 69%; Figure 1 ) when compared with a national sample (34%; table 9–22 in NSF, 2016 ) and when compared with female assistant professors in the life sciences ( Ceci et al. , 2014 ).
For a postdoctoral scholar exploring career positions beyond the traditional research-only tenure-track faculty option, finding the right match with a desired career position will ultimately lead to more career satisfaction.
How can governments invest in the public good of science in a way that accelerates advancement and encourages innovation at the frontier of science–all the while acknowledging that investing in science means investing in scientists? The Ruth L. Kirschstein National Research Service Award (NRSA) program is a research-training program administered by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) that makes such investments. This study examines the impact of NRSA postdoctoral fellowships on subsequent career outcomes using NIH administrative records on applicants for the fellowship from 1996 to 2008. I
For female postdocs, the higher the mentor’s h-index, the more likely the postdoc was to receive an NIH grant. That study does note the possibility that results may not be extrapolated to more recent NRSA cohorts [ 28 ]. Some studies, however, indicate a negative impact of postdoctoral and graduate appointments. One study found that individuals who took a postdoc in biomedical fields had lower lifetime earnings than those who skipped the postdoc [ 31 ]. Although the postdoc was useful for obtaining an academic tenure-track research position, the likelihood of achieving this goal dropped considerably over time.
This study is most closely related to studies on the impact of NIH postdoctoral training [ 16 ] and research grant funding [ 17 ] on scientific productivity. A study using a regression discontinuity showed that receiving a postdoctoral fellowship increased publications by 20 percent in the next five years relative to non-awardees [ 16 ]. In addition, postdoctoral fellows received higher dollar amounts in subsequent funding compared to non-awardees. Our analysis below indicates that RDD has limitations for estimating the impact of the postdoctoral fellowship awards.
Individuals from more prestigious universities and with early publications score higher on grant applications, on average. We also assume that PhD supervisor reputation and quality are captured, at least indirectly, in the review score of future grants. This analysis uses detailed fellowship and subsequent grant application and funding information, including application review score, funded or non-funded status, timeframe and institute receiving applications or funding the award, as well as previous grant funding or training affiliations. We include outcome variables like NIH’s Research Project Grants (RPGs) and R01-equivalent grants.
RPGs are a broad classification of multiple award mechanisms, including the R01-equivalent. R01-equivalent is considered the most prestigious award demonstrating independence and leadership in science. This information on NRSA F32 postdoctoral fellowship applicants from 1996 to 2008 comes from NIH administrative records [ 35 ]. The authors further queried administrative records for subsequent applications for funding and awards for these individuals. As in a similar study [ 16 ], this paper defines the outcome variables to identify research award application or receipt four or more years out from the individual’s NRSA F32 application year.
No matter the particular mechanism driving outcomes, elite fellowships for postdoctoral scientists appear to increase the probability that awardees will receive research funding later in their career. In an era where major federal agencies are focused on improving the scientific enterprise for early career scientists, these results provide strong evidence to the science policy community and leaders that using mechanisms like the NRSA F32 fellowship to prepare and sustain a biomedical research workforce does achieve the goal of keeping scientists in federally funded research careers.
These results are also consistent with the recommendations of NIH’s Biomedical Workforce Working Group [ 44 ] and the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Next Generation Researchers Initiative [ 45 ], which both suggest that the number of postdoctoral students receiving fellowships should increase. A limitation of this study is that it does not allow one to examine the extent to which funding from other agencies or research organizations affects those that do and do not receive NRSA F32 funding.
However, if individuals were able to receive support from other sources in early career and then develop their federally funded research, we would expect this to bias our estimates downwards. Thus, our results may be considered a lower-bound on the impact of fellowships on subsequent funding and an independent research career. In Fiscal Year 2018, one NRSA F32 award cost the federal government no more than $60,000 per individual. If a fellowship lasts, on average, two years, then the total cost of funding postdoctoral fellowship training via this mechanism is around $120,000 per individual.
Future work studying the causal effects of science funding will need to grapple with this issue and, before RDD methods are used, researchers will need to test for the validity of RDD assumptions just as researchers currently do with other causal research designs such as difference-in-differences methods. This paper finds robust results that overall elite fellowships keep postdoctoral researchers in federally funded science at higher rates than those who did not receive the award. Along the margin of being funded or not, the postdoctoral fellowship award mechanism significantly improves the probability of receiving
The average treatment effect of a postdoctoral award (for all applicants) increases the future probability of receiving federally funded research awards by anywhere from 4.0 to 6.3 percentage points and the probability of receiving an elite independent research award by anywhere from 2.6 to 4.6 percentage points on average. Overall, this study provides evidence demonstrating the positive impact of an elite fellowship program on retaining scientists in the scientific research workforce and informs policymakers about the value of future investments in the program.
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