Cognitive biases drive human optimism bias

the verdict

SUPPORTED

the evidence backs this

Recorded sources

3 sources for · 0 against

Counts group repeated records of the same source within each side. They do not measure evidence strength or source independence.

Cognitive biases, particularly illusions of control and flawed risk perceptions, play a foundational role in driving human optimism bias and unrealistic positive expectations.

The analysis

The retrieved literature directly supports the premise that cognitive biases—specifically the illusion of control and related cognitive distortions—drive and predict manifestations of optimism bias and perceived invulnerability.

Evidence for · 3

It won't happen to me: Unrealistic optimism or illusion of control?

Recorded source metadata

Frank P. McKenna. It won't happen to me: Unrealistic optimism or illusion of control?. 1993. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2044-8295.1993.tb02461.x

Paper 0 establishes that cognitive distortions such as the illusion of control directly drive optimistic misjudgments regarding personal outcomes.

Source citation format

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More for · 2

Managing students’ illusion of control in higher education: effect on unrealistic optimism and expectancy disconfirmation

Recorded source metadata

Gonzalo Luna-Cortes. Managing students’ illusion of control in higher education: effect on unrealistic optimism and expectancy disconfirmation. 2024. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10734-024-01212-2

Paper 4 shows that the illusion of control acts as a cognitive bias that positively drives unrealistic optimism in academic settings.

Source citation format

Perceived invulnerability in traffic: illusion of control, desire for control, risk perception, and traffic-locus of control.

Recorded source metadata

Nae EC, Truța C, Cazan AM. Perceived invulnerability in traffic: illusion of control, desire for control, risk perception, and traffic-locus of control.. 2025. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1626481

Paper 10 demonstrates that cognitive factors like the illusion of control and locus of control drive perceived invulnerability and overconfidence.

Source citation format

The paper trail · every fact has a biography

first checked01 Aug 2026

judged → SUPPORTED · 9101 Aug 2026

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