Changing the base year of real GDP affects the growth rate measures due to changing relative prices.
the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
refutedsupported
the weight of evidence
4 sources for · 0 against
Peer-reviewed literature demonstrates that altering the base year of real GDP in constant prices can modify measured growth rates and component shares due to substitution bias and shifting relative prices.
GDP in constant prices of ASEAN countries suffers from substitution bias by ignoring relative price changes and makes GDP growth and shares dependent on the base year. These analytical deficiencies led the US since the mid-1990s to convert GDP from constant to chained prices. Thus, cross-country comparisons in constant prices are analytically shaky even with the same base year. Therefore, this paper implements US GDP in chained prices in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand to alleviate substitution bias and prevent baseyear dependence of GDP growth and shares for valid cross-country comparisons._x000D_ Converting UN GDP data from constant 1990 prices to chained prices affected Malaysia and the Philippines more than Indonesia and Thailand. Shares of GDP level during 2002-06 show Malaysia’s industry sector expanded (43.6 to 47.6 percent) while its service sector shrunk (49.1 to 43.7 percent). In the Philippines, the agriculture sector shrunk (19.2 to 14.7 percent) while the service sector expanded (48.6 to 53.6 percent). Shares of GDP growth during 2002-06 show the industry sector drove Thailand’s GDP growth, contributing around 54 percent, while the service sector drove GDP growth in Indonesia, Malaysia, and in the Philippines, contributing around 49, 49, and 60 percent, respectively, before and after conversion.
Changing the base year (1985) of Philippine GDP in constant prices could change the growth rate and the shares of components even when there is no change in the volume of production, implying that the changes in growth rate and shares are anomalous (i.e., no real basis). This possibility weakens GDP in constant prices as basis for valuing our economy’s production and analyzing its growth performance. This paper demonstrates that conversion to chained prices avoids the above anomalies and also shows smaller and shrinking agriculture and industry sectors and enlarging services sector that is now over 50 percent of the Philippine economy than are shown by valuation in constant 1985 prices. In both contributions to level and growth of GDP, chained prices accentuate more than constant 1985 prices the declining importance of agriculture and industry and the rising importance of services in Philippine economic transformation.
Changing the base year (1985) of Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) in constant prices could change the growth rate and the shares of components even when there is no change in production volume, implying that the changes in growth rate and shares are anomalous (i.e., no real basis). This weakens GDP in constant prices as basis for valuing our economy's production and analyzing its growth performance. This paper demonstrates that GDP conversion from constant 1985 prices to chained prices avoids the above anomalies and also shows smaller and shrinking agriculture and industry sectors and enlarging services sector that is now over 50 percent of the Philippine economy. Chained prices accentuate more than constant 1985 prices the declining importance of agriculture and industry and the rising importance of services in Philippine economic transformation.
Changing the base year (1985) of Philippine GDP in constant prices could change the growth rate and the shares of components even when there is no change in the volume of production, implying that the changes in growth rate and shares are anomalous (i.e., no real basis). This possibility weakens GDP in constant prices as basis for valuing our economys production and analyzing its growth performance. This paper demonstrates that conversion to chained prices avoids the above anomalies and also shows smaller and shrinking agriculture and industry sectors and enlarging services sector that is now over 50 percent of the Philippine economy than are shown by valuation in constant 1985 prices. In both contributions to level and growth of GDP, chained prices accentuate more than constant 1985 prices the declining importance of agriculture and industry and the rising importance of services in Philippine economic transformation.
Everything we examined (4) — 3 independent sources
This check searched the claim as stated. It did not run a separate search for evidence against it.