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the claim
Carbon dioxide is the primary driver of anthropogenic global warming.
the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
refutedsupported
the weight of evidence
6 sources for · 1 against

Scientific literature and climate indicators consistently establish that carbon dioxide is the primary anthropogenic driver of global warming.

Evidence for · 6
2023 · cited by 19
Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas whose contribution to anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate system is second only to carbon dioxide (CO2). CH4 emission reduction has become critical to global climate mitigation policy, resulting most notably in the global methane pledge (GMP), pledging a 30% reduction of CH4 emissions by 2030. Methane is, however, much shorter-lived in the atmosphere than CO2, so emissions reductions may have different impacts on global warming over time. We quantify the difference over time in global annual mean surface temperature of the GMP versus the equivalent amount of CO2 emission reduction. The avoidance of CH4 emissions in the 2020s due to the GMP initially results in greater relative cooling than the avoidance of the equivalent amount of CO2 emissions over the same period, but less relative cooling after ∼2060, when almost all CH4 emitted during the 2020s has been removed from the atmosphere but much of the CO2 emitted during the 2020s remains. However, if the GMP places the world on a lower CH4 emissions trajectory after 2030, this results in a persistently and substantially greater reduction to global warming than the equivalent change in the CO2 emissions trajectory, with a maximum difference of 0.22 ± 0.06 ∘C in 2055 and relative cooling for well over a century. This equates to a large difference in avoided climate change damages if momentum in CH4 emission reduction from the GMP can be sustained after the 2020s. While the greatest reduction in warming is obtained by reducing both CH4 and CO2 emissions, our results underscore the striking global societal benefits of sustained reduction in CH4 emissions.
Evidence against · 1
cited by 0
Says human activity, or carbon dioxide emissions, is not the “primary contributor” to global warming.
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The analysis

rails:sufficiency:supported:single_source:for=1+5p:against=0+1p:partial_opposition=1 | v55:sufficiency

More for · 5
2024 · cited by 9
Although the scientific principles of anthropogenic climate change are well-established, existing calculations of the warming effect of carbon dioxide rely on spectral absorption databases, which obscures the physical foundations of the climate problem. Here, we show how CO2 radiative forcing can be expressed via a first-principles description of the molecule’s key vibrational-rotational transitions. Our analysis elucidates the dependence of carbon dioxide’s effectiveness as a greenhouse gas on the Fermi resonance between the symmetric stretch mode ν 1 and bending mode ν 2. It is remarkable that an apparently accidental quantum resonance in an otherwise ordinary three-atom molecule has had such a large impact on our planet’s climate over geologic time, and will also help determine its future warming due to human activity. In addition to providing a simple explanation of CO2 radiative forcing on Earth, our results may have implications for understanding radiation and climate on other planets.
cited by 0
to the equivalent of 14–175 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per 1 °C (1.8 °F) of warming. For comparison, by 2019, annual anthropogenic emissions of carbon Climate change feedbacks are natural processes that impact how much global temperatures will increase for a given amount of greenhouse gas emissions. Positive feedbacks amplify global warming while negative feedbacks diminish it. Feedbacks influence both the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the amount of temperature change that happens in response. While emissions are the forcing t Following Le Chatelier's principle, the chemical equilibrium of the Earth's carbon cycle will shift in response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The primary driver of this is the ocean, which absorbs anthropogenic CO2 via the so-called solubility pump. At present this accounts for only about one third of the current emissions, but ultimately most (~75%) of the CO2 emitted by human activities will dissolve in the ocean over a period of centuries: "A better approximation of the lifetime of fossil fuel CO2 for public discussion might be 300 years, plus 25% that lasts forever". However, the rate at which the ocean will take it up in the future is less certain, and will be affected by stratification induced by warming and, potentially, changes in the ocean's thermohaline circulation. It is believed that the single largest factor in determining the total strength of the global carbon sink is the state of the Southern Ocean - particularly of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation.
2025 · cited by 0
Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is the primary anthropogenic driver of climate change, accounting for more than half of the total effective radiative forcing (ERF). The accurate monitoring of carbon dioxide is essential to study the global carbon cycle and radiation budget on Earth.The Aerosol and Carbon Detection Lidar (ACDL) instrument, as the first space-borne integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) light detection and ranging (Lidar) for XCO2, was successfully launched in April 2022 onboard the DaQi-1 (DQ-1) satellite.During the two years of on-orbit operation, we constantly updated the processing methods, including the spectral broadening of CO2 caused by water vapor, etc. Finally, we calibrated and validated  the CO2 retrieved by DQ-1 usingTCCON and COCOON, and the results showed that the deviation reached the satellite design demand (1ppm).
cited by 0
nvestigate Local Air Quality article 1 day ago 3 min read NASA’s Lunar Development and Test Facility Prepares Artemis Hardware for Moon article 14 hours ago Highlights 11 min read La NASA anuncia la cobertura de la misión lunar Artemis II article 4 months ago 15 min read Agenda diaria de la misión a la Luna de Artemis II de la NASA article 5 months ago 6 min read La NASA refuerza Artemis: añade una misión y perfecciona su arquitectura general article 5 months ago Explore This Section Carbon Dioxide - Earth Indicator Key Takeaway: The amount of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has increased sharply in the past 100 years as measured from the ground and from satellites. Since carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, this increase has warmed the planet. Latest Measurement 431ppm Latest Measurement Date June 2026 Download Data Unable to render the provided source Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important greenhouse gas. Greenhouse gases trap the heat from sunlight, warming the planet. Without any greenhouse gases, Earth would be too cold to support life. But the more greenhouse gases there are in the atmosphere, the warmer the planet becomes. Carbon dioxide comes from sources such as the burning of fossil fuels (such as coal, oil, and natural gas), wildfires, and volcanic eruptions. The graph shows atmospheric CO2 levels measured by NOAA at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, since 1958. It's important to note that “parts per million” refers to the number of carbon dioxide molecules per million molecules of dry air. The data shown are the latest available, updated monthly. The second animated graph shows CO2 levels from an Antarctic ice core in combination with the observations from Mauna Loa Observatory. This extends the record back through Earth’s last three glacial cycles. The Antarctic ice core measures CO2 levels trapped in tiny air bubbles from the past that were preserved when the ice formed. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browse
2022 · cited by 0
An unprecedented devastating forest fire occurred in Australia from September 2019 to March 2020. Satellite observations revealed that this rare fire event in Australia destroyed a record amount of more than 202,387 km2 of forest, including 56,471 km2 in eastern Australia, which is mostly composed of evergreen forest. The released aerosols contained essential nutrients for the growth of marine phytoplankton and were transported by westerly winds over the Southern Ocean, with rainfall-induced deposition to the ocean beneath. Here, we show that a prominent oceanic bloom, indicated by the rapid growth of phytoplankton, took place in the Southern Ocean along the trajectory of fire-born aerosols in response to atmospheric deposition. Calculations of carbon released during the fire versus carbon absorbed by the oceanic phytoplankton bloom suggest that they were nearly equal. This finding illustrates the critical role of the oceans in mitigating natural and anthropogenic carbon dioxide releases to the atmosphere, which are a primary driver of climate change.
Everything we examined (7)
This check searched the claim as stated. It did not run a separate search for evidence against it.
  1. Global methane pledge versus carbon dioxide emission reductionpeer-reviewedno side taken
  2. Climate change feedbacksreferenceno side taken
  3. Fermi Resonance and the Quantum Mechanical Basis of Global Warmingpeer-reviewedno side taken
  4. The calibration and validation of XCO2 measured by Lidar onboard DQ-peer-reviewedno side taken
  5. Carbon Dioxide - Earth Indicator - NASA Scienceofficial-recordno side taken
  6. Australian fire nourishes ocean phytoplankton bloompeer-reviewedno side taken
  7. Pruitt on Climate Change, Againfact-checkerno side taken
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