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the claim

An agent's expected utility depends only on mean and variance

the verdict
REFUTED
the evidence says no
Recorded sources
0 sources for · 4 against

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AS REPORTEDno primary record reached; this is what the reporting says

An agent's expected utility generally depends on the full probability distribution of payoffs and higher-order moments (such as skewness and kurtosis), unless specific conditions are met—such as quadratic utility or normally distributed outcomes where mean-variance analysis suffices.

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Evidence against · 4
Recorded source metadata

Wikipedia: Expected utility hypothesis. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_utility_hypothesis

Reference article covering this claim directly

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More against · 3
Recorded source metadata

math.stackexchange.com: Agent's expected utility depends only on mean and variance. math.stackexchange.com. https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/2096974/agents-expected-utility-depends-only-on-mean-and-variance

Shows that a specific quadratic utility function leads to expected utility depending on mean and variance, implying it is not a general rule.

Recorded source metadata

arxiv.org: (untitled). arxiv.org. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2211.01240

Notes mean-variance criterion is equivalent to maximum expected utility only under specific conditions like symmetric elliptical distributions.

Recorded source metadata

link.springer.com: A user’s guide to economic utility functions | Journal of Risk and Uncertainty | Springer Nature Link. link.springer.com. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-024-09443-5

States higher-order terms like skewness and kurtosis affect expected utility, showing it does not depend solely on mean and variance.

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first checked01 Aug 2026
judged → REFUTED · 001 Aug 2026
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